Silver (XAG) Forecast: Will PPI Propel Prices Over $32.26 or Signal a Slide Under $31.72?

Silver Holds Ground as Traders Eye PPI Data and Fed Policy Clarity

Silver prices hovered near a five-week high on Thursday, as traders weighed inflation data and awaited upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) figures and Federal Reserve policy signals. Earlier in the session, silver saw a pullback after failing to sustain momentum above a 50% retracement level at $32.26, but technical support at the 50-day moving average of $31.72 remains intact.

At 12:42 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $31.80, down $0.11 or -0.35%.

Silver’s Technical Landscape

Silver briefly tested $32.26, but rejection at this level highlighted resistance from Fibonacci barriers at $32.87. A breach above $32.26 could set up a further rally, while failure to hold the $31.72 support risks declines to $31.29 or $30.59. These technical levels are pivotal, as traders look to the U.S. PPI data for clues on short-term direction.

Inflation Data and Fed Policy Expectations

The November Consumer Price Index (CPI), reported Wednesday, showed a 0.3% monthly rise, matching the largest gain since April. Core inflation stood at 3.3% annually, aligning with expectations. This data, combined with earlier Federal Reserve guidance, has fueled a 98% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Traders are hoping today’s PPI print is silver friendly and provide a tailwind for an upside breakout. Lower rates often benefit silver, which thrives in low-yield environments.

The PPI report, due Thursday morning, is expected to show a 0.2% month-over-month increase, with core PPI anticipated at 3.2% year-over-year. Jobless claims data, forecast at 221,000, will also be released, potentially shaping market sentiment further.

Global Factors and Safe-Haven Appeal

Broader geopolitical and economic developments, including ECB rate decisions and ceasefire discussions in Gaza, remain on the radar for bullion investors. While safe-haven demand has softened slightly amid lower U.S. Treasury yields and higher risk appetite, geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide underlying support.

Market Forecast

Silver’s short-term outlook depends on PPI data and the Fed’s final rate decision for the year. A bullish breakout above $32.26 could spur further gains, targeting $32.87. Conversely, a drop below $31.72 would signal bearish momentum, potentially driving prices to $30.59. With the Fed’s easing cycle widely expected to continue, silver is likely to find support in the broader macroeconomic environment.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.