Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Hits New Trend High but Remains Stalled

Silver Tests New High Before Pullback

Silver attempted to break out to a new trend high on Monday, reaching $41.67 before pulling back into its recent three-day consolidation range capped at $41.47, the prior trend high. While the daily close looks unlikely to confirm above resistance today, the session high marked the strongest price for silver in 14 years — last seen in September 2011. If silver could close above last Wednesday’s settlement of $41.22, it would secure a new high close for the trend and reinforce the bullish outlook.

Breakout Above Long-Term Channel

Two weeks ago, silver broke out above its prior trend high of $39.53, with last week’s rally carrying price into the $41.47 area. More importantly, the advance confirmed a breakout above the top line of a long-term rising parallel trend channel that had capped rallies since July. Earlier attempts to push higher in mid-summer failed, sending silver lower to retest support near its 50-Day moving average. Last week’s decisive channel breakout suggested improving upside momentum, with the current range possibly evolving into a flag or pennant continuation pattern.

Support Levels to Watch

If silver drops below its four-day low of $40.41, the next key support zone sits between the top channel line, now near $39.81, and the prior breakout level of $39.53. A successful retest here would strengthen the bullish case, especially given the channel’s long-term significance. Just below lies the rising 20-Day moving average at $39.16, last tested successfully in late August. Together, these levels form a strong technical support base for the ongoing uptrend.

Fibonacci Resistance and Big Picture

Silver’s surge to $41.67 coincided with completing a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011–2020 decline from the $49.81 peak. The immediate rejection from that level signals near-term caution and raises the possibility of extended consolidation. However, a decisive advance above $41.67 would show strength that could see silver continue higher in the near-term. Since the most recent attempts to break out of the channel have failed, indications that the recent breakout can be sustained will begin to lower a major technical barrier and signal renewed strength in silver’s long-term bull trend.

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