Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Pulls Back After Rejection at $38.51 Resistance

Silver’s recent advance, which began with a bounce from support near the 50-Day MA, encountered a key roadblock last week. The rally stalled at $38.51, matching resistance from a prior interim swing low. That level has now confirmed its role as a near-term ceiling. Momentum faded from there, and on Monday, the metal slipped to a four-day low of $37.56, closing back under the 20-Day MA.

This moving average had been briefly reclaimed last week with two consecutive daily closes above it, but Monday’s price action signaled a loss of short-term buying conviction. The 20-Day MA now sits at $38.07, likely acting as near-term resistance, while the 50-Day MA, currently at $37.08, defines a key support zone.

Support Levels Define Bullish Bias

The retreat produced a lower swing low on the daily chart, which is a minor bearish indication in the short run. Still, the broader bullish trend—established from the April swing low at $28.32—remains intact. The 50-Day MA at $37.08 marks the first line of defense for this trend, with the more significant floor sitting at $36.21.

That level completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing and coincided with the 50-Day line during its most recent test. A breakdown below $37.08 and $36.21 would represent a meaningful shift in market sentiment, opening the door to a deeper retracement phase.

Upside Triggers Still Out of Reach

A decisive rally and daily close above $38.51 would improve the bullish outlook, potentially targeting previous swing highs and extending the uptrend. However, current price action shows no convincing signs of a breakout attempt. Until such confirmation occurs, silver’s most likely scenario is continued movement within a well-defined uptrend structure of higher swing lows and higher swing highs.

Weekly Chart Context

From a broader view, last week’s candle printed both a slightly higher high and higher low, but the change was marginal, underscoring ongoing consolidation. The past two weeks have essentially been sideways, with the $36.68 weekly low serving as a key pivot for momentum tracking. A weekly close below $36.68 would trigger a bearish weekly signal, potentially accelerating selling pressure.

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