Solana (SOL) has dropped by 5.4% below the $80 threshold in the past 24 hours as geopolitical tensions continue to rise.
The price of oil spiked near $110 this morning, following President Donald Trump’s threat of hitting Iran “extremely hard” over the next couple of weeks.
Market participants seem to be quite concerned about the impact that higher oil prices will have on the global economy, as they could lead to a spike in inflation levels in the U.S. and other corners of the world.
As a result, analysts no longer believe that the Federal Reserve will be in a position to cut interest rates in 2026, a significant departure from the prevailing view a few weeks ago.
When monetary policy tightens, risky assets like cryptocurrencies suffer. In this case, the latest decline in the price of cryptos is a direct response to the market’s views on how macroeconomic conditions will be affected by the Iran war.
In addition to Trump’s threats, Iran has vowed to retaliate against the U.S. by attacking tech companies. This is a major risk now that could result in further “panic selling” if these attacks occur.
Solana trading volumes jumped by 30% in the past 24 hours, now accounting for 13% of the token’s circulating market cap at nearly $6 billion.
This is a clear indication of the strength of the selling pressure, and could be an early sign that we are about to break through the $78 support.
In a previous Solana price prediction, we highlighted that SOL risked a 20% drop, even though the token bounced off the $80 level. This mild recovery was expected as a high volume of buy orders tends to sit at these round numbers.
However, the latest developments on the geopolitical front have already pushed SOL to retest this $78 support, and a move below could result in a rapid decline to $67 for a 13% downside risk.
Nearly $20 million worth of Solana long positions have been wiped out in the past 24 hours alone. If the amount exceeds $25 million, this would be one of the worst days for Solana bulls since early February, back when the price dipped from $100 to $78.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the daily chart has already moved below 40, indicating that bearish momentum is accelerating and confirming a sell signal. If the price dips below $78, short sellers will have the upper hand to profit from the move.
Heading down to the 4-hour chart, three consecutive sell signals have piled up in this lower time frame, indicating that institutional volumes are behind the selling spree.
The latest signal we got came before the end of the American session yesterday, as SOL hit $85. The strength of the selling pressure has managed to break past the $80 barrier during the Asian session today, anticipating a potential break below $78.
If the American session backs the move and Wall Street keeps dumping cryptos, the odds favor a bearish outlook as well.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.