Solana Price Prediction: SOL Struggles to Recapture $170 – Is a Bigger Drop Coming?

Solana (SOL) has gone up by 2.7% in the past 24 hours and is once again attempting to move above the $170 area as bulls seem to be doing their best to keep this rally going.

Trading volumes are not too strong, meaning that this is still not a contested area for bears. However, it does prove that buying interest persists despite the latest decline.

SOL has dropped by 6% in the past 7 days as cryptos as a whole have taken a breather from July’s strong rally.

The token hit a swing high at $206 and progressively declined from that area to around $156 before recovering. For the crypto market, this still qualifies as a normal pullback even though it exceeded 20%.

It was a bit troubling that the price broke below $170 as this was a key level previously. Hence, what happens next after today’s retest of this area could determine if the downtrend will continue or if bulls are ready for the next leg up.

Daily Transactions Climb to 12-Month Record

Looking under the hood, on-chain data shows that daily transaction volumes within the Solana blockchain are still on an uptrend. Data from Artemis indicates that TXs made a 12-month high upon hitting 816.1 million during the week ended on July 21.

Daily Transactions on Solana (12 Months) – Source: Artemis

Although they have retreated a bit, the evidence suggests that network usage levels are still quite strong.

Meanwhile, daily active addresses declined from around 5.5 million in mid-May to 3.9 million during the last week of July.

This is the lowest level that this metric has hit since September last year. A lower number of active addresses paired with a rising level in daily transactions could mean that long-term holders and long-standing users are the ones driving most of these higher volumes rather than new users flocking to the blockchain out of hype or FOMO.

Stablecoin volumes have shrunk a bit as well from a 12-month peak of $12.7 billion to $11.2 billion as of last week. Stablecoin volumes could drop for a number of reasons, one of the most compelling ones being that investors are piling on riskier cryptos – e.g. Solana (SOL) or meme coins – rather than keeping their cash parked at a stable asset.

These are also indications that bullish momentum is still there. When stablecoin reserves rise, it tends to support a bearish outlook as it means that investors are standing on the sidelines. However, the opposite is happening, possibly as whales are scooping up their favorite assets at these lower prices with the expectation that the rally will resume at some point.

Solana Risks Drop to $125 If It Fails to Recapture This Price Zone

Looking at the daily chart, today’s jump has successfully retested the $170 level, which is our key area to watch.

SOL/USD Daily Chart (Coinbase) – Source: TradingView

This resistance level is in confluence with the 9-day and 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which increases its relevance. A rejection of a move above this mark could ignite a much deeper drop that would push us out of pullback territory and into correction area.

This would mean that prices could continue to go up but at a much slower pace compared to April-July, possibly as the market is struggling to digest the implications of the latest macroeconomic data for the U.S. and global economy – including Trump’s decisions on tariffs.

The 9-day and 21-day EMAs are close to the 200-day EMA. That increases the risk of a confirmed trend reversal that could trigger a strong decline. If we do get a ‘death cross’, chances are that SOL could drop to $125 in the near term.