Solana Underperformed Ethereum on ‘Trump Dump’ Day: Will SOL Drop Further vs. ETH?

Solana (SOL) appears to be a weaker cryptocurrency than its rival Ether (ETH) during times of extreme market distress.

That is visible in how the SOL/ETH pair performed during and after the Oct. 9 crypto market crash.

The instrument plunged by as much as 11% after US President Donald Trump reignited fears of a trade standoff with China, triggering a $20 billion liquidation event.

It shows traders favored comparatively safer cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum amid a broad flight from riskier assets. Can the SOL/ETH trend continue in Q4? Let’s examine.

Solana vs. Ethereum: Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown Hints at 25% Drop

The SOL/ETH pair appears to have confirmed a breakdown from a symmetrical triangle pattern that had been forming since August.

The bearish continuation setup, typically signaling a pause before the prior downtrend resumes, emerged after the pair failed to break above its multi-week resistance near 0.0524 ETH.

The breakdown coincides with a “death cross” formation between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), reinforcing bearish momentum in the short term.

If the pattern plays out as expected, the pair could decline toward the structure’s theoretical target near 0.036 ETH, about 25% lower than current levels.

Adding to the downside bias, the relative strength index (RSI) remains below 50, showing that sellers retain control.

Meanwhile, trading volumes have not shown any signs of accumulation, suggesting weak dip-buying interest. Unless SOL can reclaim the 0.05 ETH level as support, the path of least resistance for the token remains to the downside.

Solana and Ethereum Analysis in US Dollar Terms

Solana’s recent breakdown from a rising wedge pattern signals growing downside pressure after months of steady gains.

The bearish reversal setup, marked by converging trendlines and weakening momentum, suggests that bulls are losing control. The decline accelerated as SOL broke below the wedge’s lower boundary near $205, confirming a potential trend shift.

From a technical standpoint, the wedge’s measured move targets toward the $150–$160 zone, roughly a 20% to 25% correction from current levels.

That area also aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, offering possible short-term support. The RSI hovering near 42 reinforces the bearish bias, while the 20-day and 50-day EMAs are on the verge of a bearish crossover.

Unless SOL reclaims $210 as support, the path of least resistance remains lower, with traders likely eyeing the $170 region as the next key test of strength.

On the other hand, Ethereum appears to be consolidating inside a textbook bull flag pattern.

The structure follows ETH’s sharp rebound from around $3,200 to over $4,700 earlier this year, with the current downward-sloping channel representing a cooling-off phase before the next leg higher.

A breakout above the flag’s upper trendline, currently near $4,400, could confirm the pattern and set ETH on course toward the $5,500 level, roughly matching the flagpole’s height projected from the breakout point.

Supporting the bullish outlook, ETH continues to trade above its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signaling a broader uptrend despite short-term volatility.

Failure to hold the flag’s lower boundary around $3,800, however, could delay the bullish setup and expose ETH to a deeper correction toward $3,400.