S&P 500 Fundamental Forecast – September 5, 2016

The S&P 500 is trading at 2172.86 as the dollar eased and the hopes of a delay in a Fed rate increase became more likely. The Nonfarm payroll report missed expectations but the previous months’ upward revision absorbed a good deal of the miss. Monthly job growth in the first seven months of 2016 slowed somewhat from the 200,000-plus pace of recent years. Many economists cite a natural downshift as the low unemployment rate provides employers with a smaller pool of available workers.

Some labor market barometer has sagged recently. Payroll processor ADP estimated that businesses added 177,000 jobs in August. And a survey of manufacturing activity showed falling employment.

The US dollar tumbled 35 points almost immediately to trade at 95.31 and helped support the climb in the index. Investors were cautious over mixed signals from manufacturing surveys. A Chinese survey of purchasing managers found factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in 22 months in August, though it was barely above the no-change mark. The U.S. purchasing managers’ index, meanwhile, contracted for the first time since February, but British manufacturing rebounded on the pound’s slump in the aftermath of the shock vote to leave the European Union.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 September 5, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 06 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Sep 06 11:30 UK 1.5% 2026 Gilt

Sep 06 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 07 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 07 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn 0% Aug 2026 Bund

Sep 08 11:00 Ireland Holds bond auction

Sep 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction