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S&P 500 Monthly Fundamental Forecast – September 2016
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The S&P 500 slid from record highs as it looks likely that the Fed could consider two rate increases this year. This has sent the US dollar on a rally
The S&P 500 slid from record highs as it looks likely that the Fed could consider two rate increases this year. This has sent the US dollar on a rally weighing on stock prices. The exchange closed at 2163.30 but remains a strong buy moving into September. The index was down just 0.32% but is up 13% for the year. The S&P500 nominal price index currently sits at its highest level on record. Again, however, it is ratios that rule over index illusion. Multiple ratios need to be used given that no one single measure is perfect. Enter charts 4 through 8. Stocks are not cheap, but they’ve been more expensive in the past. On average, the measures suggest stocks are at the upper end of the fair value range. That makes the argument for popping a stock bubble weaker than looking at index levels, even if a) the Fed could do so, and b) the Fed should so do. Signs economies in China and the U.K. were stabilizing lent support to financial markets buffeted by prospects of rising U.S. interest rates.
Mining stocks rebounded in Europe as lead, tin and zinc reached the highest levels in more than a year after an official Chinese factory gauge unexpectedly rose. Shares in Hong Kong climbed to a two-week high and S&P 500 Index futures signaled a two-day slump in U.S. stocks will end.
S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.1 percent, indicating equities will bounce back from Wednesday 0.2 percent decline. Salesforce.com Inc. slid 6.8 percent in early New York trading after forecasting fiscal third-quarter revenue that may fall short of some analysts’ estimates.
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| September Major Economic Events | ||||
| Date | Country | Name | Volatility | Previous |
| 9/1/2016 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 3 | 52.6 |
| 9/1/2016 | USD | ISM Prices Paid | 3 | 55 |
| 9/2/2016 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls | 3 | 255 |
| 9/2/2016 | USD | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 4.9 |
| 9/6/2016 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 1.5 |
| 9/6/2016 | AUD | RBA Rate Statement | 3 | |
| 9/6/2016 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product Y | 3 | |
| 9/6/2016 | EUR | Gross Domestic Product Q | 3 | |
| 9/6/2016 | GBP | Inflation Report Hearings | 3 | |
| 9/7/2016 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) | 3 | 0.3 |
| 9/7/2016 | CAD | BOC Rate Statement | 3 | |
| 9/7/2016 | CAD | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
| 9/8/2016 | EUR | ECB Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0 |
| 9/8/2016 | EUR | ECB Monetary press conference | 3 | |
| 9/9/2016 | GBP | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 2 |
| 9/13/2016 | GBP | Core Consumer Price Index Y | 3 | 1.3 |
| 9/13/2016 | GBP | Consumer Price Index Y | 3 | 0.6 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Fulltime employment | 3 | -45.4 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Part-time employment | 3 | 71.6 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Employment Change | 3 | 26.2 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Participation Rate | 3 | 64.9 |
| 9/15/2016 | AUD | Unemployment Rate | 3 | 5.7 |
| 9/15/2016 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.25 |
| 9/15/2016 | GBP | BoE Asset Purchase Facility | 3 | 435 |
| 9/15/2016 | GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | 3 | |
| 9/15/2016 | USD | Retail control | 3 | 0 |
| 9/15/2016 | USD | Retail Sales M | 3 | 0 |
| 9/15/2016 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M | 3 | -0.3 |
| 9/20/2016 | AUD | RBA Meeting’s Minutes | 3 | |
| 9/20/2016 | JPY | BoJ Press Conference | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 3 | -0.1 |
| 9/21/2016 | JPY | BoJ Monetary Policy Statement | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | EUR | Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | FOMC Economic Projections | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement | 3 | |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 0.5 |
| 9/21/2016 | USD | FOMC Press conference | 3 | |
| 9/22/2016 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 3 | 2 |
| 9/26/2016 | USD | Durable Goods Orders | 3 | 4.4 |
| 9/26/2016 | USD | Durable Goods Orders CORE | 3 | 1.5 |
| 9/29/2016 | USD | Gross Domestic Product Annualized | 3 | 1.1 |
| 9/30/2016 | USD | Fed’s Yellen Speech | 3 | |
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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