S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to See Choppy Behavior

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 02.06.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 initially tried to rally overnight in the futures market, but did struggle to hang on the gain as ADP employment numbers came out rather strong. This puts a lot of focus on the Friday Non-Farm Payroll announcement, which of course traders will be paying close attention to as per usual. This is a market that has been hoping that the Federal Reserve was going to come out and loosen monetary policy, and while they may pause in June, the reality is that they are very likely to continue looking to the tightening of monetary policy, therefore it’s likely that we see stock markets be all over the place.

The 50-Day EMA underneath it is more likely than not going to be an area of potential support, and then again we have support at the 4100 level. I do think at this point it’s probably only a matter of time before we see buyers jump in if we do fall to that level, but I also believe that the Federal Reserve could be the one issue out there that could really rock the markets at this point. After all, Wall Street cares very little about profits or the economy, but ultimately about the idea of whether or not cheap money is coming down the pike.

In general, the markets will continue to focus on the Federal Reserve, and therefore I think it’s likely that we have a situation where everybody will be waiting with bated breath on what the next Federal Reserve speaker will say. That being said, the jobs number will honestly have its part to play, so I think you could probably see quite a bit of noise over the next 24 hours. The upside has a lot of resistance right around the 4200 level, and most certainly at the 4300 level, an area that previously had been a major resistance barrier. With this, I think you got a situation where you need to be very cautious, but also recognizes the fact that we see a lot of potential volatility just waiting to happen, and therefore I think you need to be very cautious.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.