S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have a Rough Open for the Week

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 11.04.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has fallen rather hard during the trading session on Monday, as we have seen the market drop down toward the 4100 level and show signs of weakness right out of the gate. That being said, the market has fallen rather hard, testing a round figure. Alternatively, if we break down below there, then it’s likely that we could go down to the 50-Day EMA indicator, which is starting to rise a bit. Whether or not we are trying to take off to the upside is a completely different question, because now we are heading into earnings season, which will more likely than not be very negative.

With this being the case, I think we could very well drop toward the bottom of the overall consolidation area, which is all the way down to the 3900 level. On the upside, the 4200 level is a major resistance barrier, and I think this is a situation where we are trying to go back and forth and figure out what to do with ourselves, as the market has so many different moving pieces. Quite frankly, it is difficult to see a situation where we suddenly take out to the upside unless of course earnings season takes off. I doubt that’s going to be the case, but this is all about the Federal Reserve at this point as well.

After all, Wall Street banks for free and cheap money, and that’s probably going to be the case going forward. With this, I think it’s probably a situation where we see a lot of chop more than anything else, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where rallies will probably get sold into, but it’s not until we break above the 4200 level that we really see a takeoff to the upside. Moving averages underneath will continue to be a major issue, sitting right above the 4000 level, which I think is a major area of importance, as it is basically “fair value” in this overall trading range. Keep an eye on volatility, it’s going to continue to be a major issue, but I do think that we have reached the top of the overall range and a bit of a pullback makes more sense than anything else.

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