S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock markets recover after initial fear

The US stock markets were rocked initially in the futures markets as the United States labeled the Chinese as “currency manipulators.” However, there is a whole host of reasons to think that the carnage isn’t quite over.
Christopher Lewis
S&P 500 daily chart, August 07, 2019

The S&P 500 initially fell like a stone as the market cracked below the 2800 level. This was in reaction to the United States labeling the Chinese as a currency manipulator, which brings a whole host of trouble. With that in mind, I’m going to take a look at several different levels, as I see the potential for trouble and so many different places.

S&P 500 Video 07.08.19

The 2900 level above is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it could cause trouble for buyers at this point as we have seen such a massive amount of trouble. The 50 day EMA, which is pictured in red, is just above there and it looks as if it is starting to slope down towards that region. That being said though, we did find the 200 day EMA attracting a bit of attention.

All things being equal though, when I look at this chart, I recognize that the 2800 level did offer a bit of support, but we broke down significantly through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and that typically means that we are going to go down towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, that could send this market looking towards the 2740 handle. Ultimately, this is a market that has seen an immense amount of technical damage, so therefore I’m not looking at a scenario where we start to sell signs of exhaustion. That being said, if we recapture the 2900 level on a daily close, then we could go looking towards the 3000. All things being equal though, I suspect that there is enough fear out there to keep that from happening.

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