S&P 500 & US Indexes Fundamental Analysis – December 10, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The S&P 500  drifted down 13 ½ points today to trade at 2063.50 as traders continued to worry about low oil prices and the declines in Chinese PPI, although overall inflation was positive in the report. Marketwatch.com said today that in a week that has so far wiped more than 1% off the S&P and Dow, here’s some food for thought from Barry Ritholtz.

The Big Picture blogger asks what investors should expect after a flat year for U.S. markets. He says the bears take the view that a flat year is a sign that the nearly seven-year-old bull market is “old and tired,” and ready for a big pullback.

The bulls, meanwhile, view flattish action after an over 200% gain for stocks since the financial crisis as a “pause that refreshes,” says Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management. In other words, opening the door to more attractively priced stocks.

Wall Street moved lower Wednesday, putting the market on track to add to its two-day slump that is been driven in large part by oil’s tumble.

Oil futures were finding some support early Wednesday, after the industry group American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories may have decreased by 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 4. But analysts continued to warn that a global glut will keep any rise limited.

While a decline in API inventories and better than expected economic data from Japan and China “appear to be getting the credit for the moderate moves [in oil], to me this appears to be a normal trading bounce to ease short term oversold conditions,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, in a note.

Costco and Intuitive Surgical helped lead the S&P 500 lower in premarket trading, while DuPont and Dow Chemical were the index’s biggest premarket gainers.

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Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Dec 15 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Dec 17 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones