S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Nvidia, Meta Lift US Stocks Ahead of Key Inflation Forecast

S&P 500 Edges Higher as Traders Brace for Key Inflation Data

Stocks opened the week with cautious gains as traders positioned for a critical slate of inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% on Monday, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 66 points, or 0.1%, as weakness in industrial names offset strength in tech.

The modest gains came after Friday’s softer-than-expected jobs report reignited hopes of an interest rate cut later this month. With the S&P 500 now less than 1% off its recent all-time high, traders are eyeing both the Producer Price Index (due Wednesday) and the Consumer Price Index (due Thursday) to assess whether the economy is cooling at a pace that would justify a policy shift.

Will the Federal Reserve Act on Weak Labor and Cooling Prices?

Last week’s jobs report showed slowing hiring momentum, increasing the odds that the Fed could pivot. FedWatch tool data now shows rising bets on a 50-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson noted this data supports a move from “rolling recession to rolling recovery,” but warned that the near-term setup may remain volatile if monetary policy isn’t sufficiently accommodative.

Rate expectations remain fluid, and this week’s inflation numbers will be critical. A hotter-than-expected CPI could dampen easing hopes and pressure high-multiple tech stocks that have helped lead the rally this year.

Tech Megacaps Lead Gains—Can They Sustain It?

Mega-cap tech stocks bounced Monday, offering support to the broader market. Nvidia gained 1.5%, recovering from recent weakness. Meta Platforms added 1.6%, while Amazon and Microsoft also traded in the green. The rally in tech suggests continued investor appetite for growth, especially with Treasury yields easing slightly after the jobs data.

Tesla also climbed 1% after details emerged about a new compensation proposal for CEO Elon Musk, potentially worth nearly $1 trillion if fully realized. The news helped counter broader weakness in industrials and telecom.

S&P 500 Index Shakeup Triggers Moves in Robinhood, AppLovin

S&P Global’s index rebalancing drove sharp moves in premarket trading. Robinhood and AppLovin surged 8% each after being added to the S&P 500, replacing Caesars Entertainment and MarketAxess. Nutanix and TransUnion also posted gains after joining the S&P MidCap 400.

Gold miners advanced following reports that Tether is exploring investments across the gold supply chain. Harmony Gold Mining rose 5%, while Hecla, Gold Fields, and Anglogold Ashanti each added 3% or more.

Market Outlook: Inflation Data to Steer Fed Bets and Tech Momentum

Traders should remain focused on this week’s CPI and PPI prints, which will likely shape expectations heading into the next Fed meeting. With the S&P 500 near record territory and tech stocks rebounding, strong inflation data could stall the rally, while softer numbers may solidify the case for rate cuts and support a Q4 push higher.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.