Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD and NZDUSD

EURUSD

The pair’s recovery from 1.0800-20 support area seems to face hurdle at the upper trend-line resistance of a descending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. From current levels the pair could possibly find immediate support near 1.1015-1.1000 horizontal area, which if broken seems to drag the pair to its next horizontal support near 1.0920-1.0900 support zone. Further, a decisive break below 1.0900 support region now seems to provide the required momentum to drag the pair below a very important support near 1.0800 area towards testing its next major support near 1.0650 level, also nearing the lower trend-line support of the descending channel. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.1100-20 region, representing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, might continue to act as immediate strong resistance for the pair. A sustained strength above this immediate resistance opens room for an immediate upside move towards testing its next resistance near 1.1220-40 area. Moreover, a decisive strength above 1.1220-40 resistance area might continue supporting further near-term appreciating move for the pair towards testing a very important resistance near 1.1450 level.

USDCHF

Extending its near-term upward trajectory, as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel on 4-hourly chart, the pair on Tuesday cleared its intermediate resistance near 0.9650. Hence, from current levels seems more likely to continue with its appreciating move towards testing its next major resistance near 0.9740-50 area marking the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. However, should the pair fail to capitalise on the momentum and drop back below 0.9650-40 resistance turned support area and subsequently drop back below 0.9600 round figure mark, it could turn vulnerable to towards retesting a very important support near 0.9530-20 area, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the ascending channel. Further, a sustained break below the ascending trend-channel support might has the potential to drag the pair towards testing its next major support near 0.9410-0.9400 area.

AUDUSD

After decisively weakening below 61.8% Fib. expansion level, the pair on Monday dropped to its lowest level since April 2009. Although, the pair seems to have recovered a bit from lower levels, it however, now seems to face difficulty in sustaining its strength above 0.7300 mark. Hence, a drop back below 0.7260-50 zone, multi-year lows tested earlier on Tuesday, seems to increase the pair’s vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards testing the lower trend-line support, currently near 0.7150 region, of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart. Meanwhile, a sustained recovery above 0.7300 mark is likely to confront a strong resistance near 0.7370-80 area, 61.8% Fib. expansion level support now turned resistance. A decisive move back above 0.7370-80 resistance area might now trigger a near-term short-covering rally immediately towards its next major resistance near 0.7500 level, also coinciding with the upper trend-line resistance of the descending channel.

NZDUSD

Despite of last week’s interest rate cut announcement by the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand, the pair extended its last week’s rebound from multi-year lows and now seems to make an attempt to break-out of a descending trend-channel formation, held since April this year. Hence, should the pair manage to clear its immediate barrier near 0.6680-90 area, it seems to make a sharp move immediately towards 0.6770-80 resistance, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its April to July down-leg. Further, a decisive move above this resistance could provide additional boost to the pair in the near-term towards its next resistance at 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 0.6950-60 zone. Alternatively, should the pair fail to clear its immediate resistance near 0.6680-90 area and subsequently drop back below 0.6600 round figure mark, it could possibly drop back to test 0.6500 mark support and the drop could further get extended towards 0.6450-60 support area. Failure to conquer its immediate resistance and a drop back below multi-year lows might indicate continuation of the downward trajectory towards testing the lower trend-line support of the descending channel, currently near 0.6330-20 level.

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