Technical Outlook – GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY

GBPUSD

Even as the pair managed to rebound sharply from an important support confluence near 1.4920-1.4900 mark, comprising of the lower trend-line support of a well-established descending trend-channel and 61.8% Fib. expansion level, the rebound failed to extend the pair’s recovery beyond an intermediate horizontal resistance near 1.5150-60 zone. The has now dropped back below 1.5000 psychological mark and now seems to continue with its downward trajectory back towards 1.4920-1.4900 important support. Sustained weakness below 1.4900 mark strong support has the potential to continue dragging the pair towards testing its next major support near 1.4700 mark, representing 100% Fib. expansion level in the near-term. Any attempts of recovery from current levels might confront immediate resistance near 1.5050 level, which if cleared might now assist the pair to conquer 1.5150-60 resistance and extend its near-term recovery towards testing its next major resistance near 1.5350 region, also nearing the very important 200-day SMA.

USDCAD

After consolidating in a narrow trading range, the pair finally has managed to break on the upside and has not moved above 1.3500 round figure mark for the first time since June 2004. From current levels, the pair seems more likely to continue with its appreciating move towards testing an ascending trend-line resistance, currently near 1.3680-1.3700 mark. On medium-term chart, this ascending trend-line resistance, along-with another ascending trend-line, which has been acting as an important support on the downside, seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern formation. The formation, however, is not completed unless the pair decisively breaks below the lower ascending trend-line support, currently near 1.3200-1.3180 region, also coinciding with 100-day SMA. Meanwhile on the downside, the trading range resistance break-out point near 1.3400 mark now seems to act immediate support for the pair. Failure to hold this resistance turned immediate support area is likely to drag the pair back towards 1.3250 support, before it makes an attempt to test the very important support confluence near 1.3200-1.3180 region.

AUDUSD

Although, the pair decisively moved above 100-day SMA, it once again failed to clear 0.7370-80 strong resistance marked by 50% Fib. retracement level of June high to Sept. low downfall. The pair has subsequently dropped back to 100-day SMA support near 0.7200 region. Should the pair fail to bounce back from 100-day SMA support and sustains its weakness below 0.7200 mark, it could possibly extend its reversal, initially towards 23.6% Fib. retracement level intermediate support near 0.7130 level before heading towards a short-term ascending trend-line important support, currently near 0.7070-60 area. Further, a decisive weakness below the trend-line support might now expose the pair towards retesting its recent lows support near 0.6930-10 region and eventually aim lower towards testing sub-0.6800 mark support. Meanwhile, a bounce back from current support level is likely to confront immediate resistance at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 0.7270-75 area, which if cleared is likely to lift the pair back towards the very important resistance near 0.7370-80 area.

USDJPY

On 4-hourly chart, the pair remains within a broad trading range between 123.60-75 resistance on the upside and 122.30-20 support on the downside. Hence, the pair’s near-term direction would only be determined once it breaks out of the current trading range. From current levels 123.00-122.90 seems to provide immediate support, followed by another horizontal support near 122.50 level. Important downside support remains near 122.20 level. Weakness below 122.20 level support is likely to get extended immediate towards 121.50 horizontal support. Meanwhile on the upside, 123.60-75 area remains key resistance, which if conquered is likely to set the stage for continuing the pair near-term upward trajectory, possibly back above 125.00 mark towards its recent closing highs resistance near 125.65-70 area with 124.60-70 zone acting as intermediate resistance.

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