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Anil Panchal


Technical Outlook - Important CHF Pairs

Although, short-term ascending trend-channel favors USDCHF up-move, the seven month old descending trend-line, connecting January highs to March highs, coupled with the mentioned channel resistance, near 0.9845-50 area, could provide strong resistance to provide an immediate pullback towards 0.9750 to the pair. Should it break the said 76.4% Fibo level, it can test 0.9650-45 support area prior to targeting channel support, near 0.9600 round figure mark while a break of which could quickly fetch the pair down to 0.9450-45 support-zone, encompassing 200-day EMA and 61.8% Fibo. Moreover, an extended decline below 0.9445 on a closing negates the chances of pair’s near-term up-move, making it vulnerable to plunge towards sub-0.9200 region. Alternatively, a daily close above 0.9850 is likely triggering the pair’s upward trajectory towards 0.9985 – 1.0000 resistance area before rally to January highs, near 1.0230.


Ever since the EURCHF surpassed 1.0540-50 horizontal resistance, it kept extended the upwards trajectory, negating the recent pullback to 1.0530. The pair currently trades near five month highs, targeting 1.0790 – 1.0800 horizontal resistance, breaking which 200-day EMA and the 50% Fib, near 1.0840-50, can provide strong resistance to restrict the pair’s immediate up-move. Given the pair’s ability to surpass 1.0850 on a closing basis, it can fuel the up-move towards surpassing 1.1000 psychological mark, testing 61.8% Fibo, near 1.1125-30. Alternatively, a pullback towards 1.0540-30 can witness an extended down-move if it breaks the 1.0400 mark, forcing the pair to plunge towards 1.0250-40 support area, encompassing 23.6% Fibo. Moreover, a decline below 1.0240 is likely offering 1.000 mark before the pair settles for another up-round.


On Thursday, the GBPCHF negated the short-term ascending trend-channel break, triggered during Wednesday, signaling a pullback towards 1.5050-40 and the 1.4980-70 support areas. However, a break of 1.4970 can witness the channel support, coupled with 50-day EMA, as a strong point to reverse the move, failing to can make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 1.4400 mark, 23.6% Fibo, with 1.4610 – 1.4600 being the intermediate support region. On the upside, a close above 1.5300 can continue raising the hopes for 1.5545-50 re-test. Moreover, an extended up-move beyond 1.5550 is more likely fueling the pair towards 2011 highs, near 1.5700 round figure mark prior to heading to 1.6000 psychological resistance.


While the descending triangle keep favoring CHFJPY downturn, formation support, near 126.30, quickly followed by the 200-day EMA, currently at 125.70, can provide a pullback to halt the pair’s current decline. Should it fail to reverse from the said EMA, it can plunge to 23.6% Fibo. 124.20 prior to testing 123.00 round figure mark which opens door for the pair’s downward trajectory towards 121.00. However, an upside break of the triangle resistance, at 128.00, which currently restricts the pair’s immediate up-move, can fuel the pair’s up-move towards 129.00, encompassing 50% Fibo and the 129.70-75 area that may extend the pair’s surge beyond 131.30, the 61.8% Fibo.

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