Technical Outlook – Important NZD Pairs

NZDUSD

Failure to sustain the break of 0.6500 – 0.6490 horizontal support, consisting consecutive stops marked during July and early August, fuelled the NZDUSD towards challenging four month old descending trend-channel resistance, currently near 0.6610, breaking which the pair could quickly rally to 0.6740-50 horizontal resistance, encompassing the 50-day SMA. Should the pair manages to break 0.6750 on a closing basis, the 0.6940-50 and the 0.7025-30 are likely resistances that the pair could target prior to signaling 0.7200 area. Meanwhile, the said horizontal region, near 0.6500 – 0.6490, could continue acting as a near-term strong support while a close below the same is likely to be followed by the 0.6400 round figure mark, including 61.8% FE of its June-July decline. Should the pair extends its downtrend below 0.6400, the mentioned channel support and the 100% FE, near 0.6200 psychological mark becomes a decisive level to restrict the pair’s decline.

EURNZD

Short-term ascending trend-channel formation keep favoring the EURNZD up-move, that fueled the pair to mark fresh two year highs on Wednesday; however, the channel resistance, presently near 0.7075, seems restricting the pair’s immediate rally, making it test 61.8% FE level, near 0.6850. Should the pair fails to stop its recent pullback, the 0.6800 may become an intermediate support before it could test sub-0.6700 area; though, pair’s decline below 0.6700 mark is likely to be stopped by the channel support, near 0.6550. On the upside, a break of 0.7075 is likely to witness 100% FE, near 0.7170 and the 0.7200 round figure mark while a successive up-move beyond 0.7200 may target the 2013 highs of 0.7270.

NZDJPY

Ever since the NZDJPY broke below 83.50 horizontal mark, it kept the decline running toward another important horizontal support 80.50-40; however, the pair seems blocked between these region since early July and a break on either side will become decisive to determine near-term moves. On the downside, a break of 80.40, which is more likely, could fetch the pair to 79.80 and the 79.00 round figure mark, including 76.4% Fibo of its June 2013 to April 2014 up-move. Moreover a break of 79.00 is likely making the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 77.50-40 support area. On the upside, a daily close above 83.50, can quickly fuel the pair towards 50% Fibo of 84.20, breaking which the 85.70-75 region becomes an important resistance-zone that could trigger the pair’s rally towards filling up its June gap near 86.80.

AUDNZD

Even if the short-term descending trend-line keep favoring the AUDNZD decline, 50-day SMA, near 1.1125 presently, could restrict the pair’s current decline, failure to do the same can continue extending the pair’s downtrend towards 1.1000 round figure mark, near to 38.2% Fibo of May-July up-move. Should the pair declines below 1.1000, the 1.0930 and the 1.0880-70 horizontal levels are important to forecast its near-term moves. Alternatively, 1.1220, quickly followed by the mentioned trend-line, currently near 1.1295 – 1.1300, may restrict the pair’s immediate up-move, breaking which 1.1370-80 and the 1.1425, including July high are likely consecutive levels that the pair could target during its upward trajectory towards 1.1550, 61.8% FE of the said move.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets events @Fx_Anil