Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY and CHFJPY

USDJPY

Failure to break 120.80-60 support region, encompassing 50% Fibo of its December 2014 – June 2015 up-move, fuelled the USDJPY rally towards more than a month’s high; however, 124.40-50 area is likely restricting the pair’s immediate up-move, signaling a bit of pullback towards 123.40, including 23.6% Fibo. and the 50-day SMA, near 123.00 round figure mark. With an extended decline below 123.00 on the closing basis can immediately trigger the pair’s downturn to test 121.90-80, breaking which it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 120.80-60 zone. Alternatively, a close above 124.50 can fuel the pair’s rally towards challenging the year’s high of 125.85, with 125.00 psychological mark being intermediate resistance. Moreover, the pair’s break of 125.85 can quickly support its upward trajectory to target 127.50 mark; though, 61.8% FE of the said move, near 126.80, may become an intermediate resistance.

GBPJPY

The 194.00 – 194.50 broad resistance region seems to stall GBPJPY’s reversal from 100-day SMA and the 50% Fibo of April – June up-move, indicating the 192.20-192.00 immediate support area, followed by the 23.6% Fibo, near 191 round figure mark. Moreover, a sustained break below 191 could witness 189.50, 187.80 prior to re-testing 100-day SMA, near 185.70. Should the pair manages to break 194.50 on a closing basis, it can quickly test the multiple highs near 195.80, breaking which 197.00 psychological level can provide intermediate resistance to fuel the pair’s upward trajectory towards 198.00 mark, as indicated by the 61.8% FE of the said move.

CADJPY

CADJPY’s reversal from 97.00 mark seems to target 94.35-70 broad support area, including 23.6% Fibo of its December – February decline; however, a break of which is less expected and can pullback the pair towards 96.00, 96.40 and the 97.00 resistances. Should it manage to break 97.00 mark on a closing basis, it could rally to 97.70-80 region, including 100-day SMA and the 50% Fibo, prior to targeting 98.50 and the 99.30 levels. Meanwhile, a break below 94.35 can quickly pull the pair towards testing 93.50, breaking which 93.00 and the year’s low of 91.70 are likely consecutive supports for the pair. Should it manages to trade below 91.70, it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 90.70-60 support area, including 2014 lows.

CHFJPY

Reversal from four month old ascending trend-line support, coupled with 100-day SMA fueled the CHFJPY rally to 131.30 during last week; however, a month old descending trend-line resistance, which currently restricts the pair’s immediate up-move near 129.70, pulled back the pair. Should the pair witnesses a pullback from current levels, it can witness 128.50 level prior to testing 128 – 127.90 support area, including the mentioned trend-line and the 100-day SMA. Moreover, a break below 127.90 on a closing basis can make the pair vulnerable to target 125.70-60 support region, with 126.50, including 50% Fibo, being intermediate support. Alternatively, a break of 129.70 is likely to boost the pair’s upward trajectory towards 131.40-50 resistance area, breaking which the 133 and the 134.70 are likely important resistance to determine the pair’s near-term advance. Given the pair’s ability to break 134.70 on a closing basis, it can quickly surpass 136 resistance-zone.

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