Technical Overview – EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY and NZDJPY

EURJPY

The pair’s rebound from a well-established descending trend-channel support failed to lift it back above the very important 200-day SMA. From current levels, momentum below 131.00 round figure mark seems to confirm continuation of the pair’s weakening trend towards retesting the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 129.00 mark. Meanwhile, for any meaningful bounce back the pair need to clear its immediate hurdle near 132.00 mark, which if conquered seems to boost the pair beyond 134.00 mark towards retesting Dec. month swing highs near 134.30-50 area, also nearing 200-day SMA. Furthermore, sustained strength above 134.00 mark, leading to a momentum above 200-day SMA resistance, has the potential to continue lifting the pair towards testing its next major resistance near 135.80-136.00 zone, marking the upper trend-line of the descending channel formation on daily chart.

GBPJPY

Extending its near-term downward trajectory, the pair has now dropped below 178.50 important support marking 61.8% Fib. expansion level. Although oversold (RSI reading below 30), the pair seems to continue with its weakening trend towards 2015 daily closing lows support near 176.00 region. The near-term downward trajectory could further get aggravated towards 100% Fib. expansion level support near 173.00 level. Meanwhile on the upside, 61.8% Fib. expansion level support break-point, near 178.50-70 area, now seems to act as immediate resistance. A sustained strength above this immediate resistance might trigger further near-term recovery for the pair towards reclaiming 180.00 psychological mark. Only a sustained move back above 180.00 psychological mark might negate the near-term bearish expectations and could trigger an immediate short-covering rally towards 182.20-40 resistance zone.

CHFJPY

After repeatedly failing to conquer 123.80-124.00 strong resistance confluence, comprising of 100-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level of 129.00-119.80 downfall, the pair has now move back to 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 121.10-121.00 mark. Failure to hold this immediate support seems to drag the pair back towards retesting 119.00 round figure mark support, earlier tested in Nov. Below 119.00 mark support, the pair is likely to extend its depreciating move towards 61.8% Fib. expansion level support near 117.60-50 area. Meanwhile, bounce from current support area is likely to face immediate resistance near 122.00 mark, which is closely followed by resistance near 122.50-60 area marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level. On a sustained strength above 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance, the pair could possibly make a fresh attempt to retest 100-day SMA resistance, currently near 123.50 area, which if conquered might now negate expectations of any further downside in the near-term.

NZDJPY

Although the pair continues to hold above 50-day SMA immediate support, it is yet to clear the very important resistance confluence near 82.00-82.25 area comprising of 200-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level of April to August downfall. Move above this immediate resistance is likely to face another resistance near 83.70-80 area marking the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. A decisive break-through the ascending trend-channel resistance now seems to accelerate the pair’s near-term up-move initially towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level of April to August downfall resistance near 84.50-60 area, and eventually towards covering the June price gap near 87.70-80 region. Meanwhile on the downside, weakness back below 82.00 round figure mark might continue finding support at 50-day SMA region, currently near 81.20-81.00 round figure mark. Below 50-day SMA support, the pair is likely to extend its weakness towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 80.00 psychological mark, also nearing 100-day SMA. A decisive weakness below 80.00 important support is likely to negate the near-term bullish outlook for the pair.

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