Technical Overview – Important CHF Pairs

USDCHF

Following its sharp recovery from 0.9260-50 support area leading to strength back above 200-day SMA, the pair now seems to have entered consolidation phase as depicted by formation of a Rectangle on 1-hourly chart. The trading range resistance, near 0.9660-80 zone, also coincides with 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its Jan. 15 lows to March highs upswing. A sustained trade above 0.9660-80 resistance area, marking a clear break through from the Rectangular formation, now seems to pave way for continuing the pair’s near-term up-move initially towards 0.9800 mark horizontal resistance before aiming towards its next major resistance near 0.9850 level. The 0.9850 resistance represents a descending trend-line extending from Jan. high through highs tested in March and in August. On the downside, the lower end of the trading range, near 0.9570-60 area, seems to continue providing immediate support for the pair. Failure to hold the trading range support and a subsequent drop back below 200-day SMA support, currently near 0.9540-35 level, seems to drag the pair towards testing 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 0.9360-50 region. This is closely followed by a strong support marked by short-term ascending trend-line support, near 0.9300-0.9280 area.

EURCHF

Even as the pair has managed to climb back above 200-day SMA, it continues facing resistance near 1.0900 mark, representing 61.8% Fib. expansion level of its up-move from Jan. low to Feb. high. The 1.0900 resistance area also coincides with 50% Fib. retracement level of the pair’s big fall witness on Jan. 15. Should the pair manage to conquer this immediate resistance it is likely to extend it near-term upward trajectory towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1.1130 level. Alternatively, reversal from 1.0900 resistance and a subsequent weakness back below 200-day SMA, currently near 1.0770 region, is likely to infuse additional near-term weakness initially towards an intermediate horizontal support near 1.0670 level and eventually towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 1.0590 area.Considering that the pair has moved above 200-day SMA for the first time since Jan. and with RSI reading above 50 suggests higher possibilities of resumption of the prior recovery trend. However, a decisive break back below 200-day SMA might negate the near-term bullish expectations.

GBPCHF

After nearly recovering its heavy losses recorded on Jan. 15, the pair started sliding back but has managed to hold an important support confluence near 1.4640-20 area, comprising of 200-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level of May to August upswing. Should the pair continue holding above this important support confluence and move back above 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1.4800 mark, it seems more likely to move back towards testing 50-day SMA intermediate resistance, currently near 1.4920 level. Strength above 50-day SMA is likely to be followed by an up-move back towards 1.5000 psychological mark resistance, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level. However, should the pair fail to register any meaningful bounce from 1.4640-20 support confluence and starts weakening below 1.4600 mark, it is likely to accelerate its fall immediately towards 1.4520 intermediate support. The fall could further get extended towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 1.4420-1.4400 round figure mark.

CHFJPY

Failure to hold an important support near 125.40-20 area, coinciding with 61.8% Fib. retracement level support of its up-move from March lows to high tested in June, now seems to have opened room for continuing the near-term depreciating move. Moreover, on daily chart the pair clearly seems to be trending down as depicted by formation of a descending trend-channel. Hence, a follow-up selling pressure below 124.00 round figure mark seems to continue dragging the pair lower towards testing its next major support near 122.20-122.00 zone, also marking the lower trend-line support of the descending channel. Any bounce from current levels, now seems to face immediate strong resistance at an important support break point near 125.00-125.20 area. Any follow-up strength above 125.00 mark now seems to be capped at the very important 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 126.50-60 region, also nearing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel.

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