Technical Overview – USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD

USDCAD

Following its decisive move back above 100-day SMA, the pair seems to consolidate within a broad trading range between 1.3400 resistance on the upside and 1.3250 strong support on the downside. A decisive strength above 1.3400-1.3420 strong resistance is likely to provide the required momentum to lift the pair towards testing an ascending trend-line resistance. Alternatively, weakness below 1.3250 is likely to drag the pair towards another ascending trend-line support, near 1.3200-1.3180 area, also coinciding with 100-day SMA support. The combination of two ascending trend-line support and resistance, seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern on daily chart. The pattern, however, is not completed until the pair decisively breaks below the lower ascending trend-line support.

EURCAD

Reversal from its highest level since March 2014and a subsequent break below important support levels has now dragged the pair below 200-day SMA support for the first time since early July. From current levels, the pair seems more likely to continue with its depreciating move towards 1.4000-1.3980 support area, marked by 61.8% Fib. retracementlevel of April to August up-swing. Sustained weakness below 1.4000 psychological mark is likely to get extended further towards its next major support near 1.3760-50 horizontal area. Meanwhile, a move back above 200-day SMA immediate resistance, currently near 1.4100 mark, is likely to confront a strong resistance at 50% Fib. retracement level near 1.4300 mark. Only a sustained strength back above 1.4300 mark resistance might negate any near-term bearish outlook for the pair, paving way for additional recovery back towards 1.4450-70 intermediate resistance.

GBPCAD

Failure to sustain its recovery strength beyond 100-day SMA resistance and a subsequent reversal from 50% Fib. retracement level of Aug. – Oct. corrective move now seems to continue dragging the pair back towards Oct. month daily closing lows support near 1.9820-1.9800 mark. Failure to register any meaningful recovery from Oct. lows, leading to a further weakness below Oct. swing lows support near 1.9730-20 level, opens room for extension of the pair’s near-term corrective move towards testing 61.8% Fib. expansion level support, near 1.9600 mark. Alternatively, a pull-back from Oct. lows support could lift the pair back towards 2.0000 psychological mark resistance, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Only a sustained strength back above 2.0000 mark could add to possibilities of any further recovery for the pair, possibly towards retesting 100-day SMA region, currently near 2.0200-20 zone.

NZDCAD

The pair’s corrective move ended at an important support confluence comprising of 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level of March to August downfall. The pair subsequently managed to clear 38.2% Fib. retracement level and 200-day SMA intermediate resistance level to test 50% Fib. retracement level. The pair is currently holding above its immediate support at 200-day SMA near 0.8820 level. Till the time it continues holding above 200-day SMA, the pair seems to make a fresh attempt to retest 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.8940 level and eventually head towards 0.9000 psychological mark resistance, earlier tested in Oct. Alternatively, weakness back below 200-day SMA is likely to find immediate support at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 0.8780 level. Failure to sustain strength above 200-day SMA and weakness back below 0.8780 support might now drag the pair back towards retesting 100-day SMA support, which has now move near 0.8600 mark. 

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