Technical Talk: EUR/CHF Rejecting Monthly Resistance

Kicking this off from the monthly timeframe, it is resolutely clear that the trend is to the downside. Another key technical observation on the monthly scale is the bearish chart pattern that was recently completed (completed meaning that a breakout lower emerged [which happened to refresh all-time lows of CHF0.9254] beneath the lower boundary of a descending triangle formation extended from the high of CHF1.0042 and a low of CHF0.9435).

This—coupled with the price recently retesting the underside of the breached pattern level—alongside the evident downtrend in this market, favours EUR/CHF sellers in the long term and could see some technical hands target sell-on rally scenarios.

Daily Resistance in Play

Meanwhile, price action on the daily timeframe recently pencilled in a one-sided pullback from the low of CHF0.9254, which, as you can see, formed within a clear-cut downtrend. The pullback, however, has recently shaken hands with technical resistance, consisting of a moderate Fibonacci cluster around CHF0.9482, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at CHF0.9466 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) delivering hidden negative divergence.

H1 Trendline Support Breach

Given where we are coming from on the bigger picture and the longer-term downtrend, the H1 timeframe is likely to see short-term sellers fading any rallies. As you can see on the H1 scale, buyers and sellers are squaring off at the underside of a recently breached trendline support (taken from the low of CHF0.9279), with the CHF0.94 handle calling for attention below. Should sellers overwhelm any buying interest, as the higher timeframes suggest, and the cross engulfs CHF0.94, this could unearth a bearish scenario, targeting H1 support between CHF0.9366 and CHF0.9375.

Technical Studies Suggest a Sellers’ Market

So, overall, technical studies indicate sellers should remain in the driving seat south of H1 trendline support and eventually dethrone any bids around CHF0.94 to take aim at H1 support between CHF0.9366 and CHF0.9375 as an initial downside target.

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