Technical Update – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD and AUDUSD

EURUSD

and bounce from 100-day SMA support near 1.1100-1.1080 area. The bounce from 100-day SMA now seems to reverse from an intermediate resistance near 1.1230-40 area, marking a short-term descending trend-line. From current levels, the pair seems to find immediate support at 100-day SMA, currently near 1.1120. Sustained weakness below 100-day SMA now seems to open room for continuing the near-term weakening trend immediately to 1.1020-1.1000 round figure mark support. However, should the pair continue holding 100-day SMA support and manage to move back above 1.1200 round figure mark resistance, leading to a move above the short-term descending trend-line resistance, currently near 1.1230 level, the pair seems more likely to extend its up-move towards testing the ascending trend-line support break-point, now turned resistance near 1.1290-1.1300 region.

USDJPY

The pair managed to bounce back from an important horizontal support nearing 118.50 level to clear a short-term descending trend-line resistance near 119.60-70 zone and is currently trading close to 120.00 mark. Any follow-up build-up above 120.00 mark, is more likely to confront a strong resistance near 120.70-80 area, also marking 200-day SMA. Only a sustained move back above 200-day SMA resistance might now negate any bearish outlook, thus paving way for further appreciating move in the near-term. Alternatively, should the pair fail to capitalise on its strength above the short-term descending trend-line resistance and start weakening back below 119.50 immediate support, the pair could possibly turn vulnerable to retest the very important support, currently near 118.80 level. Further, decisive weakness below 118.80 support opens room for continuing the near-term depreciating move towards retesting another strong support near 116.10-116.00 region.

USDCAD

Although the pair has maintained its up-trend, as depicted by formation of an ascending trend-channel on 4-hourly chart, it now seems to find difficulty in conquering 1.3300 mark resistance and thus seems vulnerable to retest the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.3180 level. Further, a decisive weakness below 1.3180 support, marking a break-down from the ascending channel, has the potential to further drag the pair towards 1.3100 mark support. The drop could get extended towards testing sub-1.3000 mark support in the near-term. However, should the pair manage to clear 1.3300 mark immediate resistance, it seems all set to surpass recent high resistance near 1.3350 region and continue climbing higher towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.3500 mark.

AUDUSD

The pair on 4-hourly chart seems to be in the process of forming a bullish reversal, Falling Wedge, chart pattern with the upper descending trend-line resistance near 0.7020 level. The formation, however, is not complete unless the pair decisively conquers this 0.7020 resistance, which also coincides with 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Aug. 24 to Sept. 04 downfall. Hence, a decisive break through 0.7020 resistance now seems to open room for extension of the near-term recovery move immediately towards 0.7100-0.7120 resistance, marking 50% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile on the downside, 0.6945-40 area now seems to provide immediate support. Failure to hold this immediate support might lead to further weakness, possibly even below 0.6900 mark, towards testing another descending trend-line support, also forming part of the bullish Falling Wedge chart-pattern, currently near 0.6880 level.

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