Technical Update – GBPAUD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD

GBPAUD

Within a broader ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart, the pair continues facing strong resistance near 2.1500 mark also nearing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 2.1550 region. Reversal from 2.1500 psychological mark resistance and a subsequent weakness below 2.1300 and 2.1200 mark round figure mark support seems to extend the near-term corrective move, initially towards testing sub-2.0900 support area and eventually towards 2.0400 mark horizontal support. Meanwhile, should the pair manage to sustain its move above 2.1500 mark, leading to a strength above the ascending trend-channel upper trend-line resistance near 2.1550, it seems to continue scaling higher levels towards testing next major resistance near 2.1700 mark. The ascending channel break-out momentum might continue support additional near-term upward trajectory towards 2.2000 mark psychological mark resistance.

AUDCAD

The pair continues to oscillate within a broad trading range between 0.9750 resistance on the upside and 0.9400 support on the downside, thus forming a rectangle chart pattern on daily chart. However, the pair now seems to find support at 100-day SMA support, currently near 0.9560-50 area. Failure to hold 100-day SMA support would reinforce range-bound moves, dragging the pair back towards testing the lower end of the trading range support near 0.9400 mark. Alternatively, till the pair continues holding above 100-day SMA and subsequently strengthens back above 0.9650 immediate horizontal resistance, it is likely to make a fresh attempt to retest the upper end of the trading range resistance near 0.9730-50 area. Considering the pair’s immediate trading pattern, only a decisive break-out of the trading range would assist in determining its near-term move in either direction.

AUDJPY

The pair has repeatedly failed to register any significant recovery from 2015 lows, as depicted by another failed attempt to conquer 92.30-40 strong resistance area. Rejection from important resistance, which now also coincides with 50-day SMA, and a subsequent drop back below 90.00 psychological mark, now seems to force the pair back towards retesting the very important support near 89.50-30 area. Further, decisive weakness below 89.50-30 support area, held since Feb. 2015 is likely to extend the pair’s weakness towards its next major support near 88.00 round figure mark. On the upside, move above 91.00 round figure mark is likely to confront resistance near 91.70 horizontal area. Major resistance, however, remains near 92.30-40 area, which if conquered sets the stage for some meaningful recovery for the pair towards its next major resistance near 94.50-60 region.

AUDNZD

After failing to conquer 1.1400 mark and a subsequent bounce from 38.2% Fib. retracement level support of April to July up-swing now seems to face resistance at a short-term descending trend-line, currently near 1.1300 mark. The pair has now dropped below 1.1100 mark support, representing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. From current levels weakness below 1.1020-1.1000 mark seems to accelerate the downward momentum towards a very important support near 1.0900-1.0880 area, coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level. A decisive break below 1.0900 mark important support would confirm completion of a bearish Double-Top chart pattern, thus opening room for continuing the pair’s near-term downward trajectory, possibly even below 100-day SMA support near 1.0820 level, towards a very important support confluence near 1.0700 mark, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level and 200-day SMA. Meanwhile, a move back above 1.1100 mark support turned resistance might continue to face resistance at the descending trend-line, currently near 1.1250 region. Should the pair manage to conquer this trend-line resistance 1.1400 mark might again come into play as strong resistance. Sustained move above 1.1400 mark would suggest resumption of the pair’s strong momentum, opening the room for a further up-move towards its next major resistance near 1.1550-60 area marking highs tested in Oct. 2013.

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