Technical Update – GBPUSD, AUDNZD and NZDJPY

GBPUSD

The pair once again failed to capitalise on its strength above 200-day SMA. The pair subsequently dropped below 50% Fib. retracement level of its up-move from April low to June high to test its lowest level in 3-months. From current levels, the pair seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower to retest June lows support near 1.5200-1.5180 area. Failure to hold 1.5200 level now seems to open room for an immediate downside towards testing 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 1.5080 region. However, should the pair manage to hold 1.5200 mark support and starts moving above 1.5250-60 immediate resistance marked by 50% Fib.retracement level, it seems more likely to extend the bounce towards retesting 200-day SMA, currently near 1.5350-60 area. Only a decisive move above 200-day SMA leading to a subsequent strength above 1.5400 mark, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level, might negate possibilities of any further downside for the pair.

AUDNZD

Barring its sharp volatile move in the beginning of the week gone-by, the pair continues to reverse from a short-term descending trend-line resistance. On the flip side, the pair has managed to hold an important support near 1.0940-20 area, also coinciding with 100-day SMA. Should the pair decisively break below this important support, it is likely to continue drifting lower towards its next major support at 200-day SMA, currently near 1.0700-1.0680 zone. Meanwhile, a bounce from current support area, is likely to confront immediate resistance near 1.1020 horizontal level. A decisive strength above this immediate resistance set the stage for a retest of the short-term ascending trend-line resistance, currently near 1.1200-1.1220 area.

NZDJPY

After a sharp fall in the previous week, towards 72.00 mark, the pair recovered sharply to move back above 81.00 mark. The 72.00 mark support also coincides with 61.8% Fib. retracement level of the pair’s big up-move that started in May 2012 and lasted till Nov.-Dec. 2014. The pair, however, resumed its weakening trend this week and is now headed for its lowest weekly close since August 2013. Should the pair close below 76.00 mark, representing 50% Fib. retracement level, it is likely to extend its weakening trend in the near-term back towards retesting 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 72.00 mark. Any bounce-back now seems face immediate resistance near 76.80-77.00 mark horizontal zone. Should the pair manage to hold 76.00 mark support and strengthen back above 77.00 mark resistance, it seems more likely to extend the near-term recovery back towards 80.00 psychological mark, coinciding with 38.2% Fib. retracement level and also nearing 50-day SMA.

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