Technical Update – Important JPY Pairs

USDJPY

The pair managed to recover sharply from 120.30-40 support area, marked by an ascending trend-line support extending since the beginning of 2015 through lows tested in April-May 2015, and subsequently moved back above an important resistance near 123.00 mark, represented by a short-term descending trend-line. Hence, from current levels, the pair seems more likely to continue its upward trajectory, initially test 124.40-50 resistance area and eventually towards a very important resistance near 125.00 mark. Further, a decisive strength above 125.00 mark now seems to open room for additional appreciating move towards 126.30-50 resistance area, marked by highs tested in March-April 2001. Meanwhile on the downside, the resistance break-point near 123.00-122.80 area now seems to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support seems to drag the pair back towards retesting the ascending trend-line support, currently near 120.60-50 area, which if broken might trigger extension of the near-term corrective move towards its next major support at 200-day SMA, currently near 118.50 level.

CADJPY

After testing a very important support near 94.50 level, the pair managed to rebound sharply to retest an ascending trend-line support break-point, now turned resistance near 97.00 region. This 97.00 mark also coincides with 38.2% Fib. retracement level of the pair sharp fall from June high to lows tested in July. Clear strength above 97.00 mark resistance has the potential to lift the pair back towards 200-day SMA resistance near 98.40-50 zone with 50% Fib. retracement level near 97.70-80 area acting as intermediate resistance. Alternatively, reversal from current resistance level and a subsequent break below 96.50-40 immediate horizontal support might force the pair back below 23.6% Fib. retracement level intermediate support near 96.00 region to retest 94.50 important support area.Moreover, reversal from support turned resistance and a subsequent retest of an important support would suggest that the pair might be headed lower towards testing its next major downside support near 93.00 level.

AUDJPY

After dropping to its lowest level since Feb. 2014 and nearly testing 89.00 round figure mark, the pair managed to recover from near-term oversold conditions and has now moved back above 92.00 mark. Although, on 1-hourly chart the pair seems to move within an ascending trend-channel, but it seems to confront a strong resistance near 92.40-50 area, marking 38.2% Fib. retracement level of its May to July down-leg. Should the pair manage to conquer this immediate resistance it clearly seems to be headed towards its next major resistance confluence near 93.20 level, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level and the upper trend-line resistance of the ascending channel. On the downside, the lower trend-line of the ascending channel, currently near 92.00 region, seems to protect immediate downside. However, should the pair decisively break below the ascending channel, it could immediate drop back to 91.10-91.00 support area marked by 23.6% Fib. retracement level.

GBPJPY

The pair’s corrective move from its highest level since Sept. 2008 ended at a very important support near 185.00 region, comprising of 100-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level of the pair’s big up-move from April low to highs touched in June. The pair resumed its upward trajectory and is now trading above 193.00 mark. From current levels, should the pair manages to continue the momentum and strengthen above 193.50-60 horizontal resistance, it could possibly be aiming back towards retesting its recent highs resistance near 195.50 level. Further, a sustained break above 195.50 resistance now seems to set the stage for extension of the upward trajectory towards testing 61.8% Fib. expansion level resistance near 198.40-50 zone. On the downside, weakness below 193.00 level seems to get extended towards 191.50-30 support area, nearing 23.6% Fib. retracement level. This 191.50-30 area now seems to act as a strong support on the downside, which if broken might negate the near-term bullish expectations, thus increasing the pair’s vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards retesting 188.00-187.80 support area, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level.

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