Technical Update – USDCAD, EURCAD and GBPCAD

USDCAD

Following a break below 1.2350-60 support, the pair on 4-hourly chart seems to have confirmed a bearish Double-Top chart pattern. Subsequently the pair is now trading below 1.2300 mark support, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of its May low to June highs up-swing. Hence, from current levels the pair seems more likely to extend the downfall towards retesting 50% Fib. retracement level support near 1.2240-35 zone. The downfall could further get extended towards its next support at 61.8% Fib. retracement level near 1.2160-50 zone, which also happens to the expected fall of the bearish Double-Top chart pattern. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.2340-60 area support break-point now seems to act as immediate resistance. Any up-move beyond this immediate resistance is likely to be capped at 1.2400 mark, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level. However, a decisive strength above 1.2400 mark might now negate any near-term bearish outlook for the pair, paving way for a retest of the very important resistance near 1.2550-60 area.

EURCAD

The pair once again failed to sustain its strength above 200-day SMA resistance and dropped back to test 1.3730-40 support area marking 100-day SMA. Weakness below 100-day SMA is likely to find support at a short-term ascending trend-line, currently near 1.3660-50 area, which if broken decisively might immediately drag the pair back towards testing 1.3430-40 horizontal support. Meanwhile, a sustained move above 1.3810-30 zone has the potential to lift the pair back towards retesting a strong resistance near 1.3945-50 area, marked by 200-day SMA. Decisive strength above 200-day SMA, leading to a subsequent strength above 1.4000 mark might negate possibilities of any near-term downfall, thus opening room for continuing the near-term upward trajectory back towards 1.4300 mark resistance area.

GBPCAD

Although the pair reversed from 1.9200 round figure mark, a subsequent bounce from 100-day SMA support near 1.8850-40 area lifted the pair back above 1.9000 mark. However, any further up-move from current levels is likely to confront a strong resistance near 1.9170-90 area, marked by a descending trend-line extending from Feb. high through high touched in the week gone by. Should the pair manage to break through this descending trend-line resistance, it could possibly make a fresh attempt to move back above 1.9400 mark and surpass 1.9420-30 resistance (2015 daily closing high) towards retesting 1.9500 psychological resistance mark. On the downside, 1.9020-1.9000 area now seems to protect immediate downside. Weakness below 1.9000 mark might continue finding support near 100-day SMA region, currently near 1.8850 level. However, a decisive break below 100-day SMA support now seems to accelerate the downfall towards testing a very important support confluence near 1.8420-1.8400 mark, comprising of 200-day SMA and an ascending trend-line support.

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