The Day Ahead: Markets React to Canada Tariffs and Bitcoin Surge Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are under pressure after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada starting August 1. S&P 500 futures are down 0.48%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.57%, and Dow futures off 0.45% pre-market.

This follows Thursday’s session where the S&P 500 gained 0.27% to 6,280.46, the Nasdaq added 0.09% to 20,630.67, and the Dow rose 0.43% to 44,650.64, with the indices closing at new record highs.

Traders are assessing whether the ongoing rally, led by consumer discretionary and mega-cap tech after Nvidia briefly touched a $4 trillion market cap, can continue amid rising trade tensions. Citi’s Drew Pettit cautioned that macro data resilience and Fed rate cuts will be necessary for the rally’s structural sustainability.

Key Economic Releases

At 18:00 GMT, the Treasury Department will release its monthly Treasury statement with a forecast of -$41.5B (prior: $316.0B). A narrower deficit could temper expectations for near-term Fed easing, while a wider shortfall may increase funding concerns, adding volatility to yields and risk assets.

Notable Earnings

Levi Strauss jumped 6% post-market after raising sales guidance, beating on EPS ($0.22 vs $0.13 expected) and revenue ($1.45B vs $1.37B). PriceSmart gained 7% post-market on an EPS beat of $1.14 versus $1.12 expected, with revenue narrowly above consensus.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Bitcoin hit a record high of $116,781.10 on institutional demand, supported by a crypto-friendly U.S. policy backdrop, last trading at $116,563.11.  Stocks tied to Bitcoin moved higher after hours, with bitcoin miners Mara Holdings and CleanSpark each gaining nearly 3%, and MicroStrategy adding 1.8%.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,336.85 amid safe-haven flows on Trump’s tariffs but gains were capped by a stronger dollar.

Oil is stabilizing, with Brent at $69.08 and WTI at $67.09, recovering from Thursday’s tariff-driven decline while traders watch for potential Russia sanctions.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini futures last traded at 6,291.75, with resistance at 6,333.25. Support levels are layered at 6,023.2 (50-day MA), 5,989.9 (200-day MA), 5,959.00, and 5,808.75.

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures last traded at 22,908.00, with resistance at 23,112.00. Support levels are at 21,788.4 (50-day MA), 21,299.2 (200-day MA), and 21,566.75.

The Dow E-mini futures last traded at 44,661.00, with resistance at 45,177.00. Support sits at 42,972.8 (50-day MA), 43,543.0 (200-day MA), and 44,428.00.

Outlook

Today’s session will be shaped by trade tensions following Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on Canada effective August 1, with futures lower across major indices.

Traders will monitor the Treasury statement at 18:00 GMT for potential funding and deficit signals.

Bitcoin’s record highs and continued strength in gold highlight active flows in alternative assets, while oil stabilizes after tariff-driven declines.

The focus remains on whether the market can absorb rising trade headwinds while holding recent gains, with attention on sector rotation and liquidity conditions into the weekly close.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.