The Day Ahead: Traders Brace for Markets Today Amid Tariffs and Rising Yields

Market Overview

U.S. stock futures are flat early Tuesday following President Trump’s announcement of steep new tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with the “reciprocal” tariff deadline extended to August 1. Dow futures are down 0.01% (–5 pts), S&P 500 futures up 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 futures higher by 0.21%.

This follows a broad pullback Monday, with the Dow down over 400 points (–0.9%), the S&P 500 off 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% as traders recalibrated at highs ahead of July earnings season.

While Trump’s tariff escalation hit headlines, it remains a secondary driver compared to rates repricing post-NFP.

Friday’s stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report effectively removed a July rate cut from the table, shifting focus back to the Fed’s data-dependent stance while pushing yields higher.

Traders are adjusting positioning as policy easing expectations are deferred, removing the “lower yields fuel melt-up” tailwind that had previously supported risk assets into highs.

Notable Earnings

There are no notable earnings before the open Tuesday, July 8. Penguin Solutions (PENG) will report after the close with an expected EPS of $0.32.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Gold is steady as safe-haven demand from tariff escalation competes with higher yields, capping upside momentum.

Oil prices are retracing after a near 2% rise in the prior session, with traders assessing tariff noise alongside an OPEC+ output hike for August.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 E-mini futures are consolidating near 6,282.00 with resistance at 6,333.25 and the main support at 5,959.00 and 5,808.75. The index remains above  200-day moving average at 5,984.60 and the 50-day moving average at 5891.80.

Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures are trading near 22,938.25 with resistance at 23,102.50 and initial support the 200-day moving average at 21,596.90, followed by the 50-day (21,266.33) and main swing bottom at 21,266.00.

Dow E-mini futures are stabilizing near 44,634, below resistance at 45,177. Key support is the 200-day moving average at 43,527, the 50-day moving average at 42,734 and main swing bottom at 42088.

Outlook

The post-NFP repricing has shifted the market backdrop, with yields rising and a July cut now off the table. This reduces the prior tailwind of lower yields supporting the melt-up narrative in risk assets.

While tariff developments remain a headline risk, the upcoming earnings season and the Fed’s path will likely drive direction from here, as traders watch for any softness in inflation that could reintroduce rate cut expectations later in Q3.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.