The Day Ahead: What Markets Are Watching Today—PMIs, Oil Drop, and Earnings

Futures Pull Back After S&P 500’s Nine-Day Win Streak

U.S. equity futures edged lower early Monday, pausing after a strong rally that saw the S&P 500 post its longest winning streak since 2004. As of premarket trading, S&P 500 futures were down 0.4%, while Dow and Nasdaq-100 futures each declined 0.3%. Friday’s session closed with the S&P 500 up 1.47%, marking its ninth consecutive gain and recovering all losses since early April. The Nasdaq and Dow followed suit, climbing 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively, on optimism around renewed trade dialogue with China.

Investors remain cautious despite bullish price action, with Dunham & Associates’ CIO Ryan Dykmans warning that the rally may be driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. Wall Street is now looking ahead to the Fed’s policy meeting beginning Tuesday for any signals on the economic outlook, especially given continued trade tensions.

Key Services Sector Data in Focus Today

Two closely watched services sector reports are due today. The S&P Global Final U.S. Services PMI for April will be released at 13:45 GMT, followed by the ISM Services PMI at 14:00 GMT. These data points will provide insight into U.S. consumer activity and business conditions, and could impact rate expectations if results diverge from consensus.

Earnings From Ford, Mattel, Tyson and More Set to Move Sectors

A busy earnings calendar is headlined by early reports from On Semiconductor, Tyson Foods, and Loews before the bell. Traders will monitor Tyson’s numbers for consumer spending trends in staples, while Mattel’s post-close report may offer insight into tariff exposure in the toy sector.

Ford’s results, due after the bell, are also in focus. CEO James Farley’s commentary on the evolving tariff landscape could influence sentiment in the broader auto sector after GM’s recent guidance cut. Other notable names reporting after the close include Clorox, Palantir, Hims & Hers, and Rivian.

Crude Slides Over 4% as OPEC+ Extends Output Boost

Crude oil prices tumbled over 4% overnight after OPEC+ confirmed another production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for June. WTI crude dropped to $55.80, while Brent fell to $58.90. This marks a more than 20% YTD decline, reinforcing bearish pressure on the energy sector.

S&P Futures Struggle to Hold Above 50-Day Moving Average

E-mini S&P 500 futures are stalling just above the 50-day simple moving average, currently at 5,618, after a strong multi-session advance. Friday’s close marked a breakout above this level, but early losses on Monday suggest bulls are struggling to maintain momentum. The 200-day moving average at 5,874 remains well above current price action and hasn’t yet come into play. A failure to hold above the 50-day average would raise the risk of a short-term pullback, with initial downside interest near 5,600. Resistance remains thin until the early April breakdown point near 5,750.

The Day Ahead Outlook

After a record-setting run, today’s trade is likely to be more measured as markets digest a flood of earnings and brace for the Fed’s meeting. Softer oil prices and muted futures suggest a cautious start. With sentiment high but fundamentals under scrutiny, traders should watch services PMI data and Fed-related commentary for directional cues. Bias is neutral to slightly bearish in the short term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.