The Trump Trade: Why You Should Long The S&P500 to $7,800

You probably remember April 2025. The S&P500 was in freefall. Panic over reciprocal tariffs was rocketing, the VIX was spiking, and retail traders were liquidating portfolios.

Then, right at the bottom, a notification popped up:

“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!” – Donald Trump.

Most traders rolled their eyes.

They called it market manipulation. They ignored it.

And they missed the exact bottom of the correction.

That wasn’t random, he controls the policy lever. He knew he was about to walk back the threats. And in fact, that’s what he did a couple of hours after that post.

I’m bringing this up because it’s happening again right now, and the vast majority of the market is making the same mistake. They are treating the President’s comments as political fluff rather than what they actually are: signaling intent.

Let’s be real for a second. Whether you like the politics or not is irrelevant to your P&L.

When the man who controls trade policy, tariffs, and geopolitical negotiations tells you where he wants the market to go, you listen.

The “Stupid” Simple Framework

It’s all about incentives!

We are heading into midterm elections this year. The stock market is Trump’s scoreboard. It is the primary metric he uses to sell his success to the electorate. He cannot afford a prolonged bear market.

This creates a predictable feedback loop that has been repeating since January 2025.

1. The Threat: Trump announces a “bad policy” (e.g., a 20% tariff on the EU).
2. The Reaction: Stocks drop.
3. The Pivot: Trump walks back the threat, as he was just using the threat as leverage to get a concession.
4. The Result: Stocks soar higher.

We’ve seen this play out in real time over and over again.

The most obvious ones where April 2025 with the reciprocal tariffs.

October 2025 when he threatened a 100% tariff on China which never happened.

Then just a couple of weeks too!

Tariffs against most EU countries for the Greenland dispute were scheduled to take effect on February 1.

The market got messy. Then, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump took the stage and said: “The stock market is going to double.”

Hours later? A deal regarding Greenland was announced, and the tariff threat was removed.

Obiviously the risk sentiment flipped instantly.

Why 7,800 Is the Target

When the President explicitly states he wants the stock market to double, the probability of him enacting policy that crashes the market drops to near zero. He effectively creates a floor.

The… Trump put.

This brings us to our directional bias. We are looking for 7,800 on the S&P500 before year end.

We aren’t the only ones seeing this setup. The institutional desks are quietly positioning for the same outcome:

JPMorgan: Targeting 8000

Goldman Sachs: Targeting 7600

Morgan Stanley: Targeting 7800

Citibank: Targeting 7700

How We Are Trading This

This is not a call to leverage up and buy blindly at the highs.

Trading is about probability. The fundamental direction is up because the policy incentives are aligned for upside. However, we know Trump uses volatility as a negotiating tactic.

Here is the play:

Wait for the “Tweet”: Wait for the next round of tariff threats or geopolitical posturing.

Watch the flush: Let the weak hands panic sell.

Buy the pivot: When the narrative shifts from “Trade War” to “Great Negotiations,” that is your entry.

At BeSomebodyFX we will be buying those dips all the way to 7800.

Ignore the noise if you want, but don’t ignore the incentives.

The President of the United States wants stocks higher.