The Week Ahead: PMI Data and Earnings to Test Markets

U.S. Stock Market Weekly Outlook (May 19–23, 2025)

U.S. equities extended their rebound last week, driven by easing tariff tensions and softening inflation data. The S&P 500 gained 5.3%, the Nasdaq surged 7.2%, and the Dow rose 3.5%. Markets responded favorably to a 90-day tariff rollback agreement between the U.S. and China, alongside April CPI and PPI data that confirmed a moderation in price pressures. The Nasdaq officially reentered bull market territory after climbing more than 20% from its April low, while the S&P and Dow reclaimed key trend levels.

This week, traders will focus on a packed Fed speaking schedule, high-profile retail earnings, and Thursday’s PMI prints for further insight into the durability of the recent rally.

Economic & Earnings Calendar

Monday, May 19
• 08:30 GMT – Fed speeches: Bostic, Williams
• 09:45 GMT – Fed Governor Jefferson
• 10:00 GMT – Leading Economic Index (Apr): -0.65% vs. -0.70% prior
• 13:15 GMT – Fed’s Logan

Tuesday, May 20
• Before market open – Home Depot (HD) reports Q1; EPS est. $3.59 on $39.1B revenue
• 09:00 GMT – Fed’s Barkin
• 13:00 GMT – Fed’s Musalem
• 19:00 GMT – Fed’s Daly and Hammack

Wednesday, May 21
• Before market open – Target (TGT) EPS est. $1.70; Lowe’s (LOW) EPS est. $2.89
• After market close – Snowflake (SNOW) EPS est. $0.21 on $1.01B revenue

Thursday, May 22
• Before market open – Analog Devices (ADI), Ralph Lauren (RL), BJ’s (BJ), Advance Auto (AAP)
• 08:30 GMT – Weekly Jobless Claims (May 17)
• 09:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI (May)
• 09:45 GMT – Flash Services PMI (May)
• 10:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales (Apr): 4.1M est. vs. 4.02M prior
• 14:00 GMT – Fed’s Williams
• After market close – Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST), Workday (WDAY), Autodesk (ADSK)

Friday, May 23
• Before market open – Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) EPS est. $1.60; Buckle (BKE) EPS est. $0.69
• 10:00 GMT – New Home Sales (Apr): 666K est. vs. 724K prior

Central Bank Activity

The Fed calendar is full this week, with scheduled appearances from Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, Logan, Barkin, Musalem, Daly, and Hammack. Market participants will be listening for commentary on inflation trends, labor strength, and policy flexibility. Williams’ remarks Thursday afternoon, following the PMI reports, will be particularly relevant for gauging near-term rate expectations. Chair Powell is not scheduled to speak.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 closed at 5,958.38, firmly above its 52-week moving average at 5,702.66. The index also cleared horizontal resistance at 5,633.35, putting bulls in control heading into a potential test of the March high at 6,147.43. Support now rests at 5,633.35, with 4,835.04 as the key downside level.

The Nasdaq Composite finished at 19,211.10, comfortably above the 52-week moving average of 18,230.68. The rally from the April low at 14,784.03 remains intact, with the next major resistance near 20,204.58. The breakout is supported by strong volume and breadth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at 42,654.75, breaking back above its 52-week moving average at 41,733.24 for the first time since March. Resistance comes in at the January high of 45,073.63.

The Week Ahead Outlook

Markets enter the week riding strong technical momentum, with key indexes back above long-term trend levels. Focus now shifts to Fed rhetoric and Thursday’s PMI data to validate the recent strength. Earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Snowflake will provide a read on consumer demand and tech spending amid tariff pressures. Traders will be watching closely for any signs that economic resilience is firm enough to extend the rally through month-end.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.