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This Key On-chain Metric Could Send Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rally Above $30,000

By:
Ibrahim Ajibade
Updated: Oct 3, 2023, 09:24 GMT+00:00

On-chain analysis examines vital indicators that could send Bitcoin (BTC) price rally above $30,000. Will the miners ape in or keep booking profits?

This Key On-chain Metric Could Send Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rally Above $30,000

Key Insights: 

  • Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly broke above the $28,500 territory on Monday as the recent Fed Rate Pause and Ethereum Futures ETF approval boosted investor confidence across the crypto markets. 
  • In the last 14 days, Bitcoin miners have capitalized on the favorable prices to sell off nearly 10,000 BTC of their block rewards in reserve. 
  • A vital on-chain indicator also shows that the $28,200 territory could pose a significant resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly broke above the $28,500 territory on Monday as the recent macro events boosted investor confidence across the crypto markets. On-chain analysis examines two vital indicators that could send Bitcoin price rally above the $30,000 mark.

Bitcoin Miners Have Depleted Their Reserves By $280 Million in Two Weeks

The ongoing Bitcoin price rally has been fueled by key macro events including the Fed Rate Pause on September 20 and series of Ethereum Futures ETFs that went live on October 2.

However, as investors began to stack their bags, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin miners have capitalized on the favorable prices to liquidate some of their reserves. 

The IntoTheBlock chart below shows that the Miners held 1.94 million BTC in their cummulative reserves as of September 19. But as of Oct 3, that figure has since dropped to 1.93 million. This implies that the miners have sold-off 10,000 BTC in the last 14 trading days.

Bitcoin Miners’ Reserves, October 2023
Bitcoin Miners’ Reserves, October 2023 | Source: IntoTheBlock

The Miners Reserves metric tracks the deposit balances in wallet addresses linked to recognized large scale Bitcoin miners and mining pools. When benchmarked to the current market prices of $27,600 , the 10,000 BTC sale means the miners have offloaded coins worth approximately $280 million in the last two weeks which has slowed down the rally.

Considering that Bitcoin Miners control about 10% of the total 19.5 million BTC in circulation, their trading activities often influence price movement significantly. 

Hence, if they cool the current selling frenzy and switch into accumulation mode, they could propel the Bitcoin price rally toward the $30,000 range. 

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Breaking the $28,200 Level Could Catalyze Larger Gains 

The critical data point analyzed above, points towards a possible Bitcoin price breakout toward  the $30,000 range if the miners flip bullish.

The Global In/Out of Money Around Price (GIOM) data, which depicts the entry price distribution of current Bitcoin investors, also supports this bullish thesis.

It shows that if Bitcoin can break the initial resistance at $28,200, the bulls could potentially push the price breakout toward $30,000. 

As shown below, 3.04 million addresses are currently holding 1.56 million BTC bought at the average price of $28,203. If they chose to sell early, the could mount a significant obstacle for the bulls. 

But if the miners begin accumulate their block rewards rather than offload them,  the Bitcoin price rally could eventually surpass $30,000 mark as predicted. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction | GIOM data
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction | GIOM data Source:IntoTheBlock

On the flipside, the bears could negate this narrative Bitcoin price wobbles below $25,000. However, as shown below, 6.54 million addresses had bought 2.45 million BTC at the maximum price of $26,543. Being the second largest accumulation zone, they will likely have enough in the tank to avert the bearish downswing. 

But if the BTC loses that critical support level, the price could drop eventually swing below $25,000.

About the Author

Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.

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