Toncoin (TON) Price Prediction: This $270M Signal Drove Toncoin Above Dogecoin’s $15B Market Cap

Ibrahim Ajibade
Updated: Jul 10, 2024, 19:17 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Toncoin (TON) price has steadied above $7 mark, despite intense negative sentiment that has surrounded the crypto markets since the start of July.
  • Toncoin's resilient performance over the past month has now seen it overtake Dogecoin to become the 8th largest cryptocurrency, per CoinMarketCap data.
  • Derivatives market data shows that Toncoin's recent growth performance is driven more by organic spot purchases than speculative trading activity.
Toncoin (TON) price forecast

In this article:

Toncoin Price Insights:

Toncoin price has steadied above $7 mark, despite intense negative sentiment that has surrounded the crypto markets since the start of July, markets data trends highlights the main catalysts behind the TON’s resilient performance.

Toncoin Price Steadies Above $7 Amid Crypto Market Volatility

Since Bitcoin retraced from its all time-high on mid-March, the global crypto market has been stuck in a correction phase. Slowing BTC ETFs inflows, delays surrounding the anticipated Ethereum ETF launch, and US Fed refusal to cut rates, were major bearish catalyst in Q2 2024.

However, despite the ensuing crypto market, Toncoin has managed to decouple from the negative downtrend, charting unexpected rally to reach a new all-time high of $8.28 in mid-June.

Toncoin price action in the last 100 days (TON/USD) | TradingView, July 10, 2024.
Toncoin price action in the last 100 days (TON/USD) | TradingView, July 10, 2024.

The chart above shows how Toncoin price has increased 58.27% in the last 100-days dating back to May 1 2024. Meanwhile, during that period majority of the mega crypto altcoins have been stuck in a downward trajectory.

For context, the global crypto market (TOTAL Cap) has declined 5.7% during that period, as depicted by the red patch in the chart above.

Essentially, this shows that the internal growth factors within the Toncoin ecosystem have remained prevalent enough to forestall the negative sentiment surrounding the global crypto markets.

$270M Open Interest Helps Toncoin Avoid Rapid Liquidations

However, a closer look at the derivatives market trends paints a much bigger picture on how Toncoin has avoided rapid price downswings during the ongoing crypto market bearish phase.

The Open Interest to Market Cap ratio (OI/MC) is a trading metric that provides insight into the level of speculative activity within a market in comparison to the overall valuation of an asset. Coins with a lower OI/MC are often show more resilient price action during a bear market, and vice-versa.

Toncoin Price vs. TON Open Interest | TON/USD | Coinglass
Toncoin Price vs. TON Open Interest | TON/USD | Coinglass

The chart above shows that Toncoin has an Open Interest of $277.3 million at the time of publication on July 10, while TON market capitalization currently stands at $18 billion. This works out to an OI/MC ratio of approximately 1.54%.

This OI/MC ratio of 1.54% suggests a moderate level of speculative activity relative to the overall market capitalization of Toncoin.

As a rule of thumb, an OI/MC ratio above 1% indicates that there is a notable amount of open interest in futures and options contracts, which could imply potential for higher volatility and strong market sentiment.

In comparison, Dogecoin (DOGE), with a market cap of $15.7 billion, currently has an open interest of about $495 million, according to the latest Coinglass data on July 10. This works out to an OI/MC ratio of approximately 3.15%.

This OI/MC ratio of 3.15% suggests a higher level of speculative activity relative to Dogecoin’s overall market capitalization compared to Toncoin’s 1.54%.

A higher OI/MC ratio indicates that a significant portion of Dogecoin’s market cap is tied up in futures and options contracts, which could imply higher potential for volatile price downswings, when futures positions get liquidated, as observed in the crypto markets over the past month.

Notably, Toncoin’s lower OI/MC ratio, largely explains why TON price has posted a more resilient performance than other mega crypto assets, amid the bear market phase.

The lower spate of speculative activity, also underlines that Toncoin persistent growth trend is being driven more by organic demand, ecosystem growth and increased adoption of its native projects such as Notcoin.

Unsurprisingly, Toncoin has now moved into the top 10 crypto asset rankings, leapfrogging DOGE into 8th place at the time of writing on July 10.

As the rest of the crypto market struggles, this rare market phenomenon (low OI/MC ratio) could attract more buyers towards TON in the weeks ahead.

TON Price Forecast: Bulls to Mount Steady Support at $7

Toncoin (TON) is currently trading at $7.22, reflecting a slight dip of 1.10% in the past day. Despite this minor pullback, the chart shows several bullish indicators suggesting that Toncoin may find strong support around the $7 mark.

The Auto Fibonacci Retracement levels indicate that Toncoin has been oscillating within a relatively narrow range, with immediate support around $7.00 and significant resistance near $7.50.

The daily chart illustrates that Toncoin has previously rebounded strongly from the $6.95 level, highlighting this zone as a critical support. If the bulls manage to maintain this support, we could see a renewed push towards the resistance at $7.50, which coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci level.

Toncoin Price Forecast (TON/USD) | TradingView
Toncoin Price Forecast (TON/USD) | TradingView

Breaking through this resistance could pave the way for Toncoin to challenge the next major resistance level around $8.14, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.

Furthermore, the current consolidation around the $7 mark suggests that traders are accumulating positions, potentially gearing up for the next upward move. Should the buying momentum strengthen, we might witness a steady climb towards $7.50, followed by $8.00, where the next significant resistance lies. A successful break above these levels would reaffirm the bullish trend and could attract more buyers into the market.



About the Author

Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.

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