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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Despite Oil’s Pullback: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD found itself under pressure at the start of the week.
  • USD/CAD tested new highs as precious metals markets pulled back.
  • USD/JPY gained ground as traders ignored the pullback in Treasury yields.

U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders Stay Bullish

DXY 210926 4h Chart
DXY 210926 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to Chicago Fed National Activity Index report. The report indicated that Chicago Fed National Activity declined from 0.08 in July to -0.04 in August, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2.

U.S. Dollar index is moving towards the resistance level at 100.50 – 100.65. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.65 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 101.50 – 101.65 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is enough room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

EUR/USD Retreats As Traders Ignore The Pullback In The Oil Markets

EUR/USD 210926 4h Chart
EUR/USD 210926 4h Chart

EUR/USD is losing ground despite the pullback in the oil markets. WTI oil declined below the $95.00 level, while Brent oil settled below the psychologically important $100.00 level.

If EUR/USD settles below the 1.1450 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range. A move below the 1.1420 level will open the way to the test of the 1.1400 level.

On the upside, EUR/USD needs to settle back above the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515. If EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1515 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.1545.

GBP/USD Pulls Back As Traders Bet On Hawkish Fed

GBP/USD 210926 4h Chart
GBP/USD 210926 4h Chart

GBP/USD is losing some ground as traders focus on general strength of the American currency. There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released today in the UK, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.

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A move below the 1.3350 level will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.3285 – 1.3300. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.3400 – 1.3415 will push GBP/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.3457.

USD/CAD Attempts To Settle Above 1.4330

USD/CAD 210926 4h Chart
USD/CAD 210926 4h Chart

USD/CAD tests new highs as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are mostly flat in today’s trading session.

From the technical point of view, USD/CAD settled above the resistance level at 1.3985 – 1.4000 and is trying to settle above the 1.4030 level. If USD/CAD climbs above 1.4030, it will move towards the resistance level at 1.4065 – 1.4080. RSI has recently moved into overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain momentum in the near term.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As Rebound Continues

USD/JPY 210926 4h Chart
USD/JPY 210926 4h Chart

USD/JPY is moving higher as traders ignore the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.74% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.96%.

Traders stay focused on the hawkish outlook for Fed policy. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 53.1% chance that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in October.

If USD/JPY settles above the 157.50 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 160.00 – 160.50. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to intervene below the 160.00 level.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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