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U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Inflation Rate Falls To 2.3%: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: May 13, 2025, 16:10 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD moved above the 1.1150 level as traders reacted to U.S. inflation data.
  • USD/CAD moved lower as demand for commodity-related currencies increased.
  • USD/JPY faced strong resistance in the 147.00 - 148.00 range.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

U.S. Dollar Retreats As Inflation Rate Misses Estimates

DXY
DXY 130525 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index pulled back as traders focused on U.S. inflation data. Inflation Rate declined from 2.4% in March to 2.3% in April, compared to analyst forecast of 2.4%. Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2.8%, in line with analyst expectations. The lower-than-expected Inflation Rate triggered a strong pullback in U.S. Dollar Index.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 101.00 level, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 100.20 – 100.40 range.

EUR/USD Rebounds After Sell-Off

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 130525 4h Chart

EUR/USD gained ground as traders reacted to the better-than-expected Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report. The report showed that Economic Sentiment improved from -18.5 in April to +11.6 in May, compared to analyst forecast of -3.5.

A move above the 1.1200 level will open the way to the test of the nearest resistance at 1.1275 – 1.1290.

GBP/USD Gains Ground, Supported By U.S. Inflation Data

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 130525 4h Chart

GBP/USD gained ground as traders focused on the UK Unemloyment Rate report, whcih showed that Unemployment Rate increased from 4.4% in February to 4.5% in March. The report met analyst estimates.

The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3300 – 1.3320 range. If GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3320 level, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.3420 – 1.3440.

USD/CAD Is Heading Towards The Support At 1.3930 – 1.3950

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 130525 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulled back amid strong rally in the oil markets. Other commodity-related currencies gained significant upside momentum in today’s trading session.

A successful test of the support level at 1.3930 – 1.3950 will push USD/CAD towards the 50 MA at 1.3867.

USD/JPY Is Losing Ground As Traders Ignore Rising Treasury Yields

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 130525 4h Chart

USD/JPY did not manage to settle above the resistance at 147.50 – 148.00 despite rising Treasury yields.

If USD/JPY declines below the 147.00 level, it will move towards the 50 MA at 145.06.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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