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U.S. Dollar Rebounds As Oil Prices Gain 3%: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By: 
Vladimir Zernov
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD pulled back towards 1.1200 as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets.
  • GBP/USD moved lower as UK Retail Sales missed analyst expectations.
  • USD/JPY rebounded amid rising Treasury yields.

U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Ahead Of The Weekend

DXY 231026 4h Chart
DXY 231026 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on PMI reports. Manufacturing PMI increased from 55.9 in September to 56.0 in October, compared to analyst forecast of 55.5. Services PMI decreased from 58.8 to 57.9, compared to analyst consensus of 58. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. The report showed that Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined from 48.1 in September to 48.0 in October, compared to analyst forecast of 46.3.

In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 50 MA at 101.89, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 102.35 – 102.50 range. On the support side, a successful test of the support at 101.50 – 101.65 will open the way to the test of the next support at 100.85 – 101.00.

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EUR/USD Pulls Back As Oil Prices Test New Highs

EUR/USD 231026 4h Chart
EUR/USD 231026 4h Chart

EUR/USD is losing ground as traders focus on weaker-than-expected PMI data from the EU. Composite PMI decreased from 53.1 in September to 51.9 in October, compared to analyst forecast of 52.7.

Traders also focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. Oil prices gained 3% as traders worried that U.S. and Israel would restart the military operation against Iran this weekend. The rally in the oil markets served as a negative catalyst for the European currency.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1175 – 1.1190. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1100 – 1.1115 range.

GBP/USD Retreats As UK Retail Sales Miss Estimates

GBP/USD 231026 4h Chart
GBP/USD 231026 4h Chart

GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on the disappointing UK Retail Sales report. The report showed that Retail Sales decreased by -0.4% month-over-month in September, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, UK Retail Sales grew by +0.8%.

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GBP/USD failed to settle above the resistance level at 1.3385 – 1.3400 and is trying to settle below the 1.3370 level. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3323. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the support at 1.3285 – 1.3300.

USD/CAD Remains Under Pressure

USD/CAD 231026 4h Chart
USD/CAD 231026 4h Chart

USD/CAD tested new lows despite the pullback in precious metals markets. The rally in the oil markets did not put pressure on the Canadian dollar. Other commodity-related currencies have also gained some ground in today’s trading session.

In case USD/CAD manages to settle below the support level at 1.3985 – 1.4000, it will head towards the next support at 1.3900 – 1.3915. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is enough room to gain momentum in the near term.

USD/JPY Rebounds As Treasury Yields Rise

USD/JPY 231026 4h Chart
USD/JPY 231026 4h Chart

USD/JPY moved higher as traders reacted to rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.68% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.99%.

If USD/JPY climbs back above the 157.00 level, it will head towards the strong resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50. On the support side, a move below the 156.00 level will open the way to the test of the support at 155.00 – 155.50.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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