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U.S. Dollar Rebounds From Session Lows As Oil Rallies: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By: 
Vladimir Zernov
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD pulled back from session highs as oil markets rallied.
  • USD/CAD remained under pressure amid rising demand for commodity-related currencies.
  • USD/JPY continued its attempts to settle above the resistance at 158.00 - 158.50.

U.S. Dollar Rebounds As Traders Buy The Dip

DXY 161026 4h Chart
DXY 161026 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is moving away from session lows as traders focus on the sell-off in the AI sector and react to the Industrial Production report. The report indicated that Industrial Production increased by +0.7% month-over-month in September, compared to analyst forecast of +0.4%.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles above the 102.00 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 102.19. If U.S. Dollar Index climbs above the 50 MA, it will head towards the resistance level at 102.35 – 102.50.

EUR/USD Moves Away From Session Highs

EUR/USD 161026 4h Chart
EUR/USD 161026 4h Chart

EUR/USD pulled back from session highs as traders focused on the rally in the oil markets. Oil prices gained 3% as President Trump has recently indicated that he could use the “Mother of all Bombs” against Iran. He added that he would not use nuclear. High oil prices boosted demand for safe-haven assets, which was bullish for the American currency.

In case EUR/USD settles below the 50 MA at 1.1201, it will get to the test of the nearest support, which is located in the 1.1175 – 1.1190 range. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.1250 – 1.1265 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.1350 – 1.1365.

GBP/USD Moves Higher As Rebound Continues

GBP/USD 161026 4h Chart
GBP/USD 161026 4h Chart

GBP/USD gained ground as rebound continued. However, traders have already started to take profits after the strong move.

The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3285 – 1.3300 range. If GBP/USD pulls back below the 1.3285 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3240. A move below the 50 MA will push GBP/USD towards the support at 1.3150 – 1.3165.

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USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4135 – 1.4150

USD/CAD 161026 4h Chart
USD/CAD 161026 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulled back as demand for commodity-related currencies increased despite the strong rally in the oil markets. High oil prices are bearish for commodity-related currencies as they hurt global economy and may reduce demand for other commodities.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.4135 – 1.4150. In case USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.4135 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.4070 – 1.4085 range.

USD/JPY Remains Stuck Near Key Resistance Level

USD/JPY 161026 4h Chart
USD/JPY 161026 4h Chart

USD/JPY gained some ground as traders focused on the rebound in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.77% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 5.12%.

From the technical point of view, USD/JPY remains stuck near strong resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50. This resistance level has been tested many times and proved its strength. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 158.50, it will head towards the next resistance at 160.00 – 160.50.

I’d note that Treasury Secretary Bessent has recently said that the yen would settle at an appropriate level if BoJ continued to conduct the right policy. His comments indicated that the U.S. was not happy with the weak yen. In this light, bulls will remain cautious amid intervention risks.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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