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U.S. Dollar Tests Yearly Highs As Traders Focus On Hawkish Fed Policy Outlook: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By: 
Vladimir Zernov
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD pulled back towards the 1.1050 level as traders bet on hawkish Fed.
  • USD/CAD was mostly flat as traders ignored the sell-off in precious metals markets.
  • USD/JPY continued its attempts to settle above the key 160.00 level.

U.S. Dollar Tests New Highs As Rally Continues

DXY 121126 4h Chart
DXY 121126 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders stay focused on hawkish Fed policy outlook and react to the Initial Jobless Claims report.

The report indicated that 200,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 195,000.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Existing Home Sales report for October. The report indicated that Existing Home Sales decreased by -5.5% month-over-month, compared to analyst consensus of +0.3%.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to setlte above the resistance level at 103.15 – 103.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 104.60 – 104.75 range.

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EUR/USD Tests New Lows

EUR/USD 121126 4h Chart
EUR/USD 121126 4h Chart

EUR/USD remains under pressure as traders focus on rising oil prices and react to recent changes in Fed policy outlook.

EUR/USD settled below the previous support at 1.1110 – 1.1125 and pulled back towards the 1.1050 level. If EUR/USD declines below the 1.1050 level, it will head towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.1015 – 1.1030 range. RSI has recently moved back into oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

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GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure

GBP/USD 121126 4h Chart
GBP/USD 121126 4h Chart

GBP/USD is losing ground despite the better-than-expected UK GDP report. The report showed that UK GDP increased by +0.2% month-over-month in September, compared to analyst forecast of +0%.

UK Manufacturing Production grew by +0.7% month-over-month in September, while analysts expected that it would decrease by -0.5%. Industrial Production increased by +0.3%, compared to analyst forecast of -0.3%.

From the technical point of view, GBP/USD is trying to settle below the 1.3250 level. In case this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3185 – 1.3200 range.

USD/CAD Is Stuck Below Strong Resistance At 1.4275 – 1.4290

USD/CAD 121126 4h Chart
USD/CAD 121126 4h Chart

USD/CAD is mosly flat despite the strong sell-off in precious metals markets. Gold is down by -2.6%, while silver pulled back by -2.9%. Other commodity-related currencies are losing ground in today’s trading session.

The nearest resistance level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4275 – 1.4290 range. If USD/CAD climbs above the 1.4290 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.4385 – 1.4400.

USD/JPY Attempts To Settle Above 160.00

USD/JPY 121126 4h Chart
USD/JPY 121126 4h Chart

USD/JPY continues its attempts to settle above the resistance at 160.00 – 160.50 as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.85% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 5.09%. Rising Treasury yields serve as a major negative catalyst for the yen as interest rates in Japan stay at low levels.

If USD/JPY manages to settle above 160.50, it will head towards the resistance level at 162.00 – 162.50. It remains to be seen whether BoJ intervenes to provide support to the Japanese yen. In case BoJ does not intervene, USD/JPY may climb above the 162.50 level and move towards the 164.00 level.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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