U.S. Dollar Tops 100 as Markets Brace for Jobs and PMI Reports: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Market Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a two-week high of 100.082 during Thursday’s Asian session, notching its third consecutive day of gains. The Greenback’s strength is being fueled by renewed optimism around global trade prospects and steady demand for U.S. assets.

Trump’s Trade Remarks Lift Sentiment

A key catalyst for the dollar’s rally came from remarks by President Donald Trump, who suggested that the U.S. is making meaningful progress on trade negotiations. He noted a “very good probability” of reaching an agreement with China and signaled discussions were also underway with India, South Korea, and Japan.

Investors interpreted these developments as potentially supportive for global trade flows and the broader U.S. economic outlook, giving the dollar additional upward momentum.

Rate Cut Bets Support Greenback’s Rally

Beyond trade developments, the dollar’s resilience is also underpinned by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as June. Markets are now pricing in 100 basis points of easing by year-end.

This dovish shift follows a string of softer-than-expected economic data. First-quarter U.S. GDP contracted 0.3%, marking the first decline in three years. Meanwhile, the ADP employment report showed private-sector job gains of just 62,000, signaling potential softness in the labor market.

Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index cooled to 2.6% year-over-year, down from 3%, providing the Fed with more flexibility to ease policy.

Focus Shifts to Economic Releases

Looking ahead, markets are closely watching Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and Weekly Jobless Claims, followed by the April Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

These releases could provide clarity on whether the Fed’s next move will confirm the market’s expectations—and whether the dollar’s uptrend has more room to run.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index is quietly building momentum. After several failed attempts, DXY finally cracked the $99.72 pivot and now flirts with resistance at $100.26. Price is riding the lower boundary of an ascending channel while the 50 EMA at $99.51 just flipped to support—bullish sign.

However, the 200 EMA sits far above at $101.43, suggesting room for further recovery. A decisive close above $100.26 could open the door to $100.76 and possibly $101.31. But caution is warranted if the index slips back below $99.72—next support lies at $98.86.

For now, the structure favors dollar strength, especially if upcoming data backs Fed-hawkish sentiment. The breakout above $99.72 gives DXY room to run. Watch $100.26 for confirmation—or signs of a reversal if price stalls.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound (GBP/USD) has slipped below its ascending trendline support and the 50 EMA at $1.3321, signaling a weakening bullish structure. The break below the key support zone at $1.3324 marks a potential shift toward a bearish bias.

Price action is now hovering just above the $1.3244 support level, with the 200 EMA offering broader trend support around $1.3110. A retest of the broken trendline could attract sellers, particularly with momentum indicators like RSI slipping under the 50 threshold. Bulls will need to reclaim $1.3324 swiftly to avoid further downside toward $1.3167.

For now, the path of least resistance appears lower. GBP/USD is testing key support after breaking trendline and 50 EMA. A sustained drop below $1.3244 could accelerate losses toward $1.3167.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The euro is under pressure after breaking below the rising wedge structure and key horizontal support at $1.1356, with momentum now favoring sellers. The pair trades below the 50 EMA at $1.1361, reinforcing near-term bearish sentiment. Immediate support rests at $1.1264, followed by $1.1215.

On the upside, bulls must reclaim $1.1356 to regain control. RSI is trending lower but not yet oversold, suggesting more room for downside.

Unless macro catalysts reverse sentiment, the path appears tilted toward further softness. EUR/USD has broken trend support and the 50 EMA. If it fails to reclaim $1.1356, further downside toward $1.1264 and $1.1215 looks increasingly likely.