US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – April 17, 2018 Forecast

The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against a basket of currencies on Tuesday. The dollar is trading slightly lower against the Japanese Yen, but higher versus the Euro. The catalysts behind the current price action are increased demand for risky assets and rising U.S. interest rates. Later today, investors will get the opportunity to react to a number of Fed speakers against a backdrop of easing geopolitical concerns.

At 1052 GMT, June U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 89.210, up 0.075 or +0.08%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on April 6 at 90.295.

The trend will change down and a closing price reversal bottom will be negated if the selling is strong enough to take out the March 27 main bottom at 88.530.

The minor trend is down. It changed to down last week when sellers took out the minor bottom at 89.410. It was reaffirmed earlier today when 89.020 failed. The minor trend will change to up if buyers take out 89.675.

The main range is 87.830 to 90.490. Its retracement zone at 89.160 to 88.846 is currently being tested.

The minor range is 90.490 to 88.530. Its retracement zone at 89.510 to 89.741 is a resistance area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the U.S. Dollar Index the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 89.160.

A sustained move over 89.16 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, the index could retrace back to the 50% level at 89.510.

A sustained move under 89.16 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into the Fibonacci level at 88.846. This is also the trigger point for a possible acceleration to the downside with 88.530 the next likely downside target.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 88.846 all session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the sellers are in control, or if the buyers are returning.