US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Holds $99.03 as Ceasefire Holds — Nonfarm Payroll Ahead for GBP/USD and EUR/USD?

Dollar Firms as Sticky Inflation Reinforces Cautious Fed Outlook

The dollar rose strongly June 5, 2026, as lingering questions about inflation emerged with April’s CPI data coming in hotter than expected. April’s consumer prices rose at a 3.8% year-on-year pace in the headline rate with the core rate coming in marginally higher, at 4.1%. As a result, the markets have revised lower expectations for near-term interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh. Consequently, the dollar strengthened in today’s sessions.

Euro Slides as Central Bankers Signal Dovishnes

In other markets, the euro weakened against the dollar after new comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) appeared to hint at a potential shift towards a more dovish position in the event the economy in the Eurozone slows more than anticipated. The pound fell off its recent peaks with the Bank of England (BOE) holding the status quo, waiting for further releases in the data from the British economy, against the backdrop of a global economic climate shrouded in uncertainty.

Geopolitics in the picture

Even though a fragile truce has been established between the U.S. and Iran more than nine weeks ago, and the geopolitical risk premium has dropped, this is not enough to keep a lid on the dollar, at least for now, with inflation still being a major factor. Prices are likely to stay elevated for now at the very least until the next batch of data comes to light, the Fed speaks, and new developments on the global economic and geopolitical front emerge.

DXY Advances to $99.22 – Blue Ascending Channel Breakout Strengthens on 2h

DXY is currently priced at $99.22 on the 2-hour chart. The pair is printing green candles inside the blue ascending channel in a higher-highs and higher-lows manner. It’s just breached resistance at $99.18, with support sitting above the red 50-period MA. Bull candlesticks are indicating that the buyers are actively absorbing the market on pullbacks.

The price action has recently repelled pressure from the white descending trendline. RSI is above 52, indicating positive momentum without the reading hitting overbought levels.

Volume Profile shows that support is around the $99.00-$99.06 level. The next upside Fib cluster is at $99.55-$99.72. The chart has been bullish above $99.00, bouncing higher off the blue ascending channel, keeping the price action higher-lows to higher-highs.

Trade Idea: Long $99.22 targeting $99.55; stop $99.00.

GBP/USD Steady at $1.3464 – Rising Channel Floor Bounce on 2h

On the 2-hour chart, GBP/USD is priced at $1.3464. The green rejection wicks defended the white ascending trendline and 0.382 Fib near $1.343. The red moving average sits near $1.345 as the price action is being tested, acting as dynamic resistance. While there were small pullbacks, the buyers seem to have stepped in to support, keeping higher lows intact.

The RSI stands near 52, suggesting neutral momentum. Volume Profile identifies $1.343 as the support level. Resistance is identified at the $1.348-$1.350 cluster. The trend remains bullish above $1.343 and is bouncing off a rising channel. Higher lows are continuing on the 2-hour chart.

Trade Idea: Long $1.3464 targeting $1.350; stop $1.343.

EUR/USD Holds $1.1639 – Blue Trendline Defense on 2h

On the 2-hour chart, EUR/USD is trading for $1.1639. The pair is bouncing around $1.162 after dipping to lower levels, where a number of buyers stepped in near the blue ascending trendline. While red candlesticks are forming lower highs, the red MA remains near $1.166 with visible resistance. Although the green candles are continuing but not showing any follow through, the red candles did absorb some of the supply at the support zone.

The RSI is trading near 48, suggesting momentum is neutral. The Volume Profile has identified $1.162 as support. The next resistance is at the $1.166-$1.168 Fib cluster. It seems the EUR/USD has remained neutral while testing the rising channel floor inside the broader downtrend. The price is trading in a range. The buyers seem to have started buying at lower levels.

Trade Idea: Long $1.1639 targeting $1.166; stop $1.160.