US Dollar Price Forecast: Greenback Holds Gains Ahead of Powell Remarks GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index edged toward 97.80 in early Asia, extending last week’s rebound as traders positioned for a dense slate of Federal Reserve remarks. The move follows the Fed’s first cut of the year—25 bps—that set the federal-funds range at 4.00%–4.25%.

Powell’s ‘Risk-Management’ Framing

Chair Jerome Powell described the reduction as a risk-management cut, citing a softer labor backdrop alongside still-elevated inflation. The tone from officials since the decision has been measured rather than overtly dovish, helping steady the dollar.

Attention Monday turns to Governor Stephen Miran, who dissented in favor of a 50-bp move and is due to explain his rationale.

“Miran’s speech will be the most market-relevant,” said Joseph Capurso of Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noting investors want clarity on how officials weigh independence and outside influence.

Independence Debate Tempers Upside

While the index is firmer, questions around the Fed’s independence may curb follow-through. Investors are parsing whether political or external pressures could shape the path of rates, keeping positioning cautious.

With multiple appearances scheduled this week—including Chair Powell—any hint of a faster or slower easing trajectory could jolt the greenback.

For now, the DXY holds its recovery, but the next leg likely hinges on whether officials reinforce a gradual-easing narrative or signal a shift in stance.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

DXY’s 4-hour rebound has stalled into a confluence of resistance: the descending trendline from August and the 200-EMA near 97.82. Price is hovering around 97.65 after a three-day bounce from 96.56, while the 50-EMA at 97.43 has turned into initial support. RSI sits near 60, showing improving momentum but not a confirmed trend shift.

A rejection candle (shooting star/bearish engulfing) under 97.80 would keep the broader downswing intact and favors a retrace toward 97.28, then 96.92. Losing 96.92 reopens 96.56. Conversely, a 4-hour close above the 200-EMA and the trendline would neutralize the downtrend, setting 98.09 and 98.44 as next caps.

Until that break, risk skews lower with rallies likely to fade into 97.8–98.0. Watch intraday RSI for divergence cues.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is stabilizing near $1.3476 after a sharp pullback to the rising trendline from early August. Price sits just below the 200-EMA (~$1.3511) and well under the 50-EMA (~$1.3556), a stacked ceiling that has capped rebounds this month. RSI (~33) is curling up from oversold, hinting at a pause rather than a full trend change.

A 4-hour close above $1.3510 would improve tone and put $1.3566 and then $1.3645 back on the map. Failure to reclaim the 200-EMA risks another drift toward $1.3440, with a trendline break exposing $1.3390 and $1.3347.

Watch candle behavior at the trendline and the EMA band: a hammer/engulfing above $1.345–$1.346 favors a bounce; a shooting star under $1.3510 argues for continued downside.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is stabilizing near $1.1745 after sliding from last week’s high. The 4-hour chart still respects a rising channel; price just rebounded from the lower rail around $1.1720, above the 200-EMA near $1.1700—a key support cluster. Overhead, the 50-EMA around $1.1763 and the $1.1768 pivot cap the first bounce.

RSI ~43 is curling higher from weak territory, hinting at a tentative momentum turn but not a trend change yet. A 4-hour close above $1.1768 would put $1.1827 back in view, followed by $1.1880.

Failure to clear the 50-EMA keeps risks tilted lower toward $1.1700 and $1.1661. Watch candle cues: a hammer/bullish engulfing at $1.1720 favors the bounce; a shooting star under $1.1768 argues for another leg down.