USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Bears Taking the Helm Ahead of Canadian Jobs Data

US and Canadian economic docket appears wholly filled with crucial economic data releases. Meantime, the Loonie pair might close the week on a negative note today, heading into the underlying Ichimoku Clouds.
Nikhil Khandelwal
Colorful Canadian Currency

Notably, the Loonie pair made the opening near 1.3230 level on Friday after touching the 1.3240 handle last day. The USD/CAD pair continued to travel down the chart.

Meantime, Crude prices edged higher today over hopes for an end to the US-China trade dispute. Yesterday, both parties decided to arrange high-level talks in early October in Washington, cheering the investors. Quite noticeably, the Crude Oil WTI Futures were trading near $56.26 per barrel in the Asian trading session.

“Upside potential for crude oil futures will remain limited, however, as strong U.S. production and demand-side concerns cap bullish gains for the current term,” said Benjamin Lu, commodities analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Significant Economic Events

US and Canadian economic docket appears wholly filled with crucial economic data releases.

On the USD-side, the market would witness the August Non-Farm Payrolls and YoY Average Hourly Earnings. The Street analysts expect both the data to shrink this time.

Post-North American opening, the significant CAD-specific events would come out, showcasing the August Jobs data. This time, the consensus estimate the net change in the Employment figure to grow, reaching 15.0K. Somehow, the market estimate the Unemployment rate to remain in-line with the prior 5.7%.

Notably, Fed’s Chair Powell’s speech at around 16:30 GMT would be another point of interest for the market participants.

Technical Analysis

1-Week Chart

After marking the weekly opening near 1.3314 level, the USD/CAD had almost reached 1.3216 level on Friday. Hence, the Loonie pair might close the week on a negative note today, heading into the underlying Ichimoku Clouds.

USDCAD 1 Week 06 September 2019

Meantime, the Parabolic SAR continued to stay below the pair, providing a contradictory prospect to the on-going downfall. Therefore, the position of the pair almost above the Ichimoku Clouds remain as the only hope for upward rebound price actions. Ability to perform a small drift to the upper side might trigger some fresh bullish price movements.

1-Day Chart

Needless to say, the 50-day SMA had moved to the bottom in late-July, crossing below the other significant SMAs. With such an action, the 50-day SMA was forming a Death-cross.

USDCAD 1 Day 06 September 2019

Anyhow, currently, the same SMA remains stemmed below the pair, acting as a firm support handle near 1.3187 level. On a closer watch, the Stochastic Oscillator was appealing for an oversold condition, considering the significant aerial SMAs. Therefore, on heading to the downside, the USD/CAD might take intermediate halts near 1.3187 and 1.3018 support levels. Nevertheless, any attempt to drive to the upside might get capped near 1.3300 psychological level where the SMAs remain stalled.

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