USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Overhead Ichimoku Clouds Deterring the Upside Actions

After following a downward slope last day, the USD/CAD pair appeared to remain in the bottom near 1.3064 level in the early hours. Traders can expect a low volatility today as the US market remains closed on account of Independence Day.  The pair had already broken the 1.3063 and 1.3057 crucial support marks yesterday. However, the pullback seemed to pause for the time being and might revamp actions over future incoming data.

Today, there won’t be any direct influencing US economic event to tweak the daily movements of the US Dollar Index. However, traders must keep an eye over the Fiber-specific events. The Euro makes up around 50% of the overall composition of the USD Index. Hence, a change in the Fiber’s actions gets reflected in the Greenback immediately. At around 09:00 GMT, the Eurozone May MoM Retail Sales figures will come out. The Street Analyst stays bullish over the Eurozone data, expecting a 0.1% growth this time. Meantime, the Greenback continued to keep hold of the July gains and was hovering near 96.74 handle in the morning.

On the other hand, Crude Oil prices continued to linger near the 10-day low as EIA reported downbeat data last night. The market had expected the Crude Stockpiles to drop by 2.964 million. Somehow, the actual reports revealed a decline of only 1.085 million for the data computed since June 28. Nonetheless, the downside remained limited on the back of OPEC+ led production cuts.

Significant Economic Events

The economic calendar remains light weighted amid lack of US and Canadian events. US markets have declared holiday on account of Independence Day. Hence, the complete focus would be on the technical status quo of the Loonie pair and other indirect price tweaking catalysts.

Technical Analysis

1-Hour Chart

After rebounding from 1.3054 level, the Loonie pair was showing some positive movements, slightly entertaining the bulls. Anyhow, on moving further upwards, the pair might find it challenging to cross above the 50-day and 100-day SMA converge, or near 1.3100 level. If the price actions somehow surpass the near-term SMA, then the next target would shift to 200-day SMA or 1.3128 level. The RSI indicated 47 level, showing disinterest among the buyers.

3-Hour Chart

The pair continued to follow downtrend, staying under the shadow of the Ichimoku Clouds. In the last 14 days, the Loonie pair had not even attempted to breach these overhead clouds. Still, few price actions made the pair move above the base line quite a few times in the last few sessions.  Today, the downside in the USD/CAD pair movements was finding significant support near 1.3056 level. A triumphant march above 1.3100 level, will enable the pair to challenge the 1.3224 resistance mark.