USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Bounces From 50 Day EMA

The US dollar has bounced from the 50 day EMA on Tuesday to show signs of resiliency after a massive pullback. The pair has been straight up in the air for some time, and this pullback was necessary. At this point now, it will be interesting to see if we can hold the uptrend, which of course the 50 day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will use. Also, we bounced directly from the ¥108 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.

USD/JPY Video 21.04.21

All this being said, we probably need to see a few days’ worth of stability to get overly comfortable, as this could just be a simple bump along the way to even lower support. That being said, I am monitoring this pair very closely in this general vicinity, and I think what we are likely to see quite a bit of noise. Nonetheless, this is the beginning of stability, and that is exactly what we need to see. By simply sitting on the sidelines and letting the market tell you what it is going to do next, you eliminate a lot of potential trouble. It comes down to whether or not you are willing to take extreme risk, or if you are going to be a little bit more risk-averse and take your time.

I believe that we will probably see some consolidation before turning around and going higher as per typical in an uptrend that has a pullback and then consolidation. That is what I believe will happen, but the question at this point is whether or not it happens here, or if it happens lower? Only time will tell.

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