USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Choppy to End Week

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday to form a neutral candlestick. At this point in time, the market is likely to see a lot of choppy behavior, which would just be an extension of what we have seen over the last couple of weeks. We are in the midst of what I could be a trend change, led by the 10 year notes showing signs of yield rates increasing. This pair is highly sensitive to the 10 year note differential between the two countries, and therefore it looks likely that we will continue to go higher given enough time.

USD/JPY Video 1.03.21

Short-term pullbacks towards the 200 day EMA will more than likely be supported, as it is sitting just above the ¥105 level. At this point, I do think that the market probably continues towards the ¥108 level, possibly even ¥110 over the longer term, assuming everything continues the way it has been. That being said, the 50 day EMA is reaching towards the ¥105 level as well, so that also offers support. All things been equal, this is a market that has recently broken a major downtrend line and sliced through the major moving averages that I have marked on the chart. That being said, I think it is going to be very noisy as we turn this thing around, which is typical for this pair specifically. That being said, I like the idea of buying dips as long as we can stay above the 50 day EMA.

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