USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar continues to weaken as risk dies off

The US dollar broke down a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the bottom of the trading session on Monday. Because of this, it looks as if the market is going to roll right back over and go looking towards the ¥105 level.
Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, August 21, 2019

The US dollar rolled over a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking below the bottom of the trading session on Monday. This of course is a very negative sign, and it should send this market much lower. At this point, the ¥107 level above should continue to be resistance, so I think the market will continue to find sellers near that area. At this point, the ¥105 level underneath would be your target, as it is massive support. All things being equal this is a pair that is wrist sensitive and the risk sensitivity is very high at this point as US/China trade relations continue to fall apart.

USD/JPY Video 21.08.19

Eventually, I believe that the market breaks down below the ¥105 level, and then reached towards the ¥102.50 level. Beyond that, the market is very likely to reach down towards the ¥100 level. Given enough time, the market looks very soft and I think that although the US dollar is favored against most currencies, the Japanese yen will of course be a bit of an outlier as it is an even more worse save currency than most others.

In the meantime, I believe that fading rallies will continue to work on short-term charts, and ultimately the market will continue to favor a lot of volatility with a negative slant. If we did break above the ¥107 level, I think we will struggle at the 50 day EMA just above that level. All things being equal, this is a sell for me.

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