USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar pulls back

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the ¥108.70 level before rolling over and falling back towards the ¥108 level. That is an area that has been supportive before, as we have bounced off of it several days in a row. Beyond that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level underneath also offer support, so at this point in time it’s very likely that we will see a bit of buying pressure, but if we were to break down below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the market probably goes much lower, perhaps reaching down to the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. That means a move down to the ¥105 level.

USD/JPY Video 10.06.19

Looking at this chart, you should keep an eye on the S&P 500 simultaneously, as the market is very sensitive to risk appetite along the lines of stocks and other global assets. While we did get a poor jobs number, the reality is that we are hanging in there, so that’s a very good sign. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be noisy and erratic, but if you are a short-term trader, then you can take advantage of these pullbacks. However, you must have a “line in the sand” down at the ¥107.70 level, which represents that previously mentioned 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. For my experience, typically if we break down through there we almost always wipe out the overall move, going back down to the 100% level. If we were to break to the upside and clear the top of the range for the day, then we could go to the ¥109 level, and then possibly the ¥109.70 level.

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