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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday, as we reached towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level again. This is an area that the market is struggling with, and the reaction on Tuesday shows me that the market isn’t ready to break out. At this point, there is a significant barrier at the ¥109.50 level that extends to the ¥110 level. If the market was to break above there, then everything changes, but at this point it’s very unlikely to happen in the short term. All things being equal, the market is likely to have a lot of trouble mainly because there are significant headlines out there that could cross the wires to make the market more of a “risk off” situation. If that’s the case, then we will pull back yet again. However, if we get some type of positive headline, then the market goes much higher, perhaps reaching to much higher levels.

USD/JPY Video 27.11.19

The 50 day EMA is trying to reach higher, breaking above the 200 day EMA, and once it does, we would form the so-called “golden cross”, which is a very bullish longer-term signal. At this point, the market looks likely to continue to grind back and forth, but I think the 50 day EMA is going to act as potential support. Even if it breaks down below there, the market probably then struggles at the ¥108 level. With that, the market is likely to continue seeing value hunters coming into the marketplace of those lower levels anyways. With that, I remain bullish but recognize that there is a lot of noise to chew through.

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